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The final sin I want to talk about is probably the most common, and it's called the Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
我想讲的最后的一个谬误,可能是最常见的，它叫做德克萨斯神枪手谬误。
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In the book in which the essay "The Intentional Fallacy" appeared, a book called The Verbal Icon, Wimsatt collaborated with Monroe Beardsley on three essays, and this is one of them.
意图谬误“是文萨特与比尔兹利一起，为一本叫做《语言象征》的书,写的三篇文章中的一篇。
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When I was talking about various sins one can commit with statistics.
我上节课讲到,统计学常见的谬误。
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One is this is very different from the Prisoner's Dilemma.
第一,协和谬误与囚徒困境不一样
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This would be one of the fallacies we looked at before right?
这是我们之前看到,过的一种谬误，对吗？
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What they did is, they looked at 12 months, they took the months with the most births in it, which happened to be June, and calculated the probability of 3 percent.
俄克拉荷马神枪手谬误，他们看了十二个月的人数，然后选择了出生人数最多的一个月？,正好是6月，然后计算出3%的概率。
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This kind of game is called a "Coordination problem."
这个博弈叫"协和谬误"
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It is the only form of knowledge free from the fallacy of unmediated expression--in other words, free from the fallacy that when I say "It is raining," I mean I'm a meteorologist and I mean it is raining.
它是唯一能免于未适当表达的谬误的一种知识形式,换句话说，免于一种谬误，比如，当我说“天在下雨“时“,我的意思是，我是一个气象学家，并且我的意思是天在下雨。
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Is that right? They were pure coordination problems.
它们是仅仅是协和谬误
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We'll talk about the Oklahoma sharpshooter fallacy.
我们现在来讲。俄克拉何马神枪手谬误。
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We'll talk about coordination problems later on.
协和谬误的问题我们以后再讨论
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So we learned the very first time that in the Prisoner's Dilemma communication per se won't help, but in the coordination problem, which could be just as serious socially as a Prisoner's Dilemma, in a coordination problem it may well help.
在第一讲里我们就学到了,在囚徒困境中沟通不起作用,但是在和囚徒困境具有,同样重要社会意义的协和谬误中,交流却能够起到作用
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