In fact, you're just a bit better than chance but you are better than chance at telling sexual orientation.
但你猜对的几率只比碰运气好一点点,猜对性取向的几率要比碰运气好一点点。
And I don't... And I understand that the lottery, the odds are not very good of winning,
而且我也不是……我明白,中彩票的几率是相当渺小的,
When they have strong recommendations in 1989 you're willing to hire everybody, and this is not a difference at all.
在1989年,当候选人的推荐信一样好时9,你雇用谁的几率都是一样的,他们的雇用率是几乎没有差别的。
People might give that a low probability because it had never been over 10,000, so they just had no psychological anchoring on that number.
人们也许会认为几率不大,因为道指从未突破万点,所以人们心理对这个数字没有锚定效应
Suppose we've got some sort of radioactive atom, which has a certain chance of decaying.
假定我们有某种放射性原子,它们以一定的几率衰变
If a case of polio emerged in the community, the chances that it could spread to other children or to your child were high; so, great interest in this in the early part of this century.
如果在某个社区出现一例脊髓灰质炎患儿,那么你的孩子或者更多别的孩子,被传染的几率非常高,所以 二十世纪初的科学家们,热衷于研究脊髓灰质炎
I mean, obviously, you're not raising their chances here but it's not a death penalty.
显然,这不会提高他们的生存几率,但也不是判了死刑。
He is more likely to think like an actuary or a CPA or an insurance agent, always calculating the odds and finding ways to cover the damages.
他们更可能做保险员,注册会计师,或是保险代理人,因为这样的人更容易把握事情胜负的几率,以及时有效地找到补救之法。
It's a good question. The question is, "What are the chances that somebody with autism will be able to overcome their deficiencies?"
不错的问题,这个问题是,"孤独症患者,能够克服自身缺陷的几率会有多大"
Yes. What are the chances that someone who's autistic would be able to overcome their deficiencies?
孤独症患者,能够克服自身缺陷的几率会有多大
How wide is the band of stuff that 99.9% usually 95% or 98%, but not 99.9%.
比如在95%-98%几率的情况下,一般是95%或者98%,但是达不到。
But when their recommendations are so-so, when it's a judgment call, the subjects are significantly more likely to hire the white American than the African American.
但如果他们的推荐信不是很好,这时就需要主观判断,实验对象雇用白人的几率,就会远远高于黑人。
They have a bias. If you ask them, what's the probability that Yale will win the Yale-Harvard game, don't expect Yale students or Harvard students to give an unbiased probability.
人们有偏向性,如果你问他们,耶鲁与哈佛的比赛中耶鲁胜出的几率有多大,不要指望耶鲁或哈佛的学生会给出,一个公正的答案
They've got various ideas about which strategies tend to be successful.
它们会想到,采用哪种策略,获胜几率更高
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