Of course, if think about it, as a community, the investment community is going to lose from security selection decisions.

其实很好理解,想想看,投资者群体可能,由于证券选择决策失误而蒙受损失

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Well, it can only be true if security selection and market timing detract from institutional returns or individual returns in the aggregate.

唯一的可能性就是证券选择,和市场时机选择,给机构和个人带来的是负的回报

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The final point that I want to make with respect to security selection actually is a little bit different with the degree of opportunity.

我想说的最后一点是,就证券选择而言,运气也会带来一些差别

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

As a matter of fact, security selection would absolutely dominate the results.

事实上,在这种情况下,证券选择将决定回报率

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Those three tools are asset allocation, market timing, and security selection.

这些工具是,资产配置,市场时机选择和证券选择

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

We've already talked about how security selection is a zero-sum game.

我们已经讨论过,证券选择是个零和博弈

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Because we hold relatively stable, relatively well-diversified portfolios, security selection turns out not to be an important determinant of returns for most investors and market timing turns out not to be an important determinant of returns.

因为持有相对稳定,和相对分散的投资组合,证券选择不再是,决定投资者回报率的重要因素,而市场时机选择,也不会成为决定回报率的重要因素

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So, it's not surprising that asset allocation explains more than 100% of returns and that, for the community as a whole, market timing and security selection are costly and lower the community's aggregate investment returns.

因此资产配置能解释100%以上的回报,也不足为奇了,对投资者整体来说,市场时机选择,和证券选择是有代价的,降低了总的投资回报

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Final source of returns--security selection.

最后一个收益来源,证券选择

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

If security selection is a zero-sum game, the amount by which the winner wins equals the amount by which the loser loses -winners and losers being defined by performance after a security selection that has been made -well, that sounds like a zero-sum game.

如果证券选择是一个零和博弈,赢方赚得的金额,等于输方赔付的金额,谁赢谁输取决于,双方投资在证券选择后的表现,这听起来确实像个零和博弈

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Alternatively, if I went back to the office and took Yale's $22.5 billion dollars and decided that I was going to day trade bond futures, security selection wouldn't have anything to say about the returns; asset allocation wouldn't have anything to say about the returns.

或者,如果我回到办公室,把耶鲁的225亿美元,投资于即日平仓的债券期货,在这种情况下,证券选择不会影响回报率,资产配置也不会影响回报率

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选