If you follow through from the independent theory, there's one of the basic relations in probability theory-- it's called the binomial distribution.

如果继续往下看,在概率论里有一个基本的概念,叫做二项分布

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

It's interesting that this person uses the word calculation; this person has the idea--this was-- 1600 was around the year when probability theory was invented.

有意思的是,这个人用了"计算"这个词,这个人想到了这个主意,概率论正是1600年左右产生的

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Another important concept in probability theory that we will use a lot is expected value, the mean, or average-- those are all roughly interchangeable concepts.

概率论中另外一个常用的重要的概念是,期望值或者也叫均值,这两个概念可以互换

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Anyway, that shows that I think probability theory does have a long history, but-- it not being an intellectual discipline-- it didn't really inform a generation of finance theory.

不管怎样,这个故事表明概率论,确实有很悠久的历史,但,那时它并非以学科形式存在,也没有对金融理论的产生有过指导意义

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The institution of insurance is something that really came in--it's one of the earliest-- I consider it a division of finance-- really came in the 1600s when probability theory was invented.

保险机构的出现,我认为这是金融业中,最早的分支之一,大约在17世纪,概率论刚刚诞生

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

I wanted to say one more thing because I realize that you have to-- your first problem set will cover this-- is to talk about the concept that applies probability theory to Economics.

我还想提一点,因为我意识到...,你们的练习题中会涉及到这个,概率论在经济学中的,应用的问题

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The real insurance industry, as I mentioned before, began in the 1600s with the invention of probability theory and with the invention of life tables for-- the invention of actuarial science; but, it grew slowly.

正如我刚才所提到的,真正的保险始于17世纪,这得益于概率论,寿命表以及,精算学的产生,但是,它的发展很缓慢

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

I'm not going to expand on this because I can't get into-- This is not a course in probability theory but I'm hopeful that you can see the formula and you can apply it.

我不准备拓展这一部分,毕竟这节课不是概率论,但我希望你们能记住这个公式,并且学会应用

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选