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In fact, the assets that the Norwegian Government owns is about two-thirds oil and one-third government pension fund assets.
实际上，挪威政府所持有的资产中,大概有三分之二的石油,和三分之一的政府养老基金。
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and it's an oil-based nation,
国家收入主要依靠石油。
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Oil is a very important asset, ... so we want to compute what that-- so now we have lots of inputs.
石油是一种重要的资产，我们想计算-,现在我们有许多参数。
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So it looks as though what the Mycenaeans did-- Greece is filled with wonderful olive trees and so they obviously took the oil from those olives.
这样看来,做芳香油贸易就很稀松平常了,希腊盛产优质的橄榄树,很显然,他们从橄榄中提取油
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And one of the best analogies you can think of is the oil rich nations of the world in post-World War Two, in the post-World War Two era, whether it's Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, the Emirates, or Venezuela, name--today Russia.
做个非常恰当的类比,你们可以把棉花想象成,二战后时期的石油,想想沙特阿拉伯,伊拉克,伊朗,阿联酋,委内瑞拉,和今天的俄罗斯吧
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This portfolio, the minimum variance portfolio, is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds and most of the--many choices you can make.
这个最小方差的资产配置是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券,而大部分。。。你可以有许多选择。
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In my diagram, I said that the tangency portfolio-- I estimated that the tangency portfolio is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
在我的曲线图里我有提到切线资产组合-,我估算出切线资产组合是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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Oil, bonds, and stocks are all independent-- somewhat independent--they're not perfectly independent, but they're somewhat independent and, to the extent that they are, it lowers the variance.
石油，债券和股票都是互相独立-,一定程度上独立，不是绝对的独立，但一定程度上独立，可以使方差值变小，降低风险。
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I went to the Bank of Mexico; I tried to convince the-- I met the president of the Bank of Mexico and tried to tell them that Mexico is too reliant on oil, too much oil--they have to get rid of their risk.
我去了墨西哥银行，我试图说服-,我与墨西哥银行的行长见了面,试图告诉他们墨西哥过于依赖石油了，过多的石油。。。他们得设法摆脱石油风险。
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I set up a theoretical framework here ... and I wanted to give you-- I mentioned oil because it seems to make it, to me, so clear what we're talking about here.
我建立了个理论框架,然后我想讲给你们听-,我之前提到石油是因为它适用于这个框架，非常清晰阐述我们所谈到的内容。
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The furthest point that I recorded was 28% oil-- that puts them there-- so if they--if you wanted to, where would it be?
这图上离原点最远的点包含28%的石油-,这已经到了图上那里了-,因此如果他们。。。如果你们想的话，那一点会在哪儿？
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So, their diet is a little bit of that-- some of their protein from that, then bread, olive oil, fruit, vegetables, cheese, milk, those kinds of things they can do.
因此他们日常饮食是一点点肉,一些肉质蛋白,然后是面包,橄榄油,水果,蔬菜,奶酪,牛奶,还有些他们可以生产的东西
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Some of those countries are really reliant on oil, ... so they really have to do-- they really should do a calculation of efficient portfolio frontiers.
有些国家过于依赖石油了，所以他们真的需要-,他们真的应该好好算一算,有效边界。
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As of then, I calculated the value of their oil in the North Sea and that's what I got-- it's worth about 3.5 billion Norwegian Kroner.
我计算了当时他们拥有的北海石油的价值,这是我的计算结果-,它价值35亿挪威克朗。
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I don't know what percent; our oil reserves in the U.S. are pretty small, so we're kind of lying somewhere inside-- maybe on this pink line.
我不知道具体占百分之几;,美国的石油储备量是微不足道的，所以我们可能是位于这附近-,也许在这条粉线上面。
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There was a conditional agreement: yes, Norway should manage this oil risk but it's politically difficult and that's the problem-- is that we're not able to do our optimal management.
他们在一定程度上同意我的观点：,是的，挪威应该设法解决石油的风险,但这在政治上很困难,其问题在于-,挪威无法做到最优的管理。
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