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So in this case, my expected payoff is a ? of 1 plus a ? of 4, for a total of again 2.5.
在这种情况下,我预期收益是?乘1加?乘4,总和还是2.5
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but I'm expected to speak in Chinese for, like, ten minutes on Wednesday for my midterm, so.
但我们周三期中考试的内容却要求我们连续讲十分钟的汉语。
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So what's my expected payoff from choosing Up where I believe the other person's going to choose Left and Right, equally likely? It's what?
那么在我对手选择左或右,可能性相同的情况下,我的预期收益会是什么样的呢
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2% You could say, I think my portfolio has an expected return of 12%-- that would be better than if it had an expected return of 10%.
如果一个投资组合的预期收益率有-,那就比一个只有10%的投资组合要好。
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Let's start by plotting my expected payoff from choosing the strategy Up.
我先把选上的预期收益,标注出来
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What I suggest we do is we do what we did last time and we start to draw a picture to figure out what my expected payoff is, depending on what I believe the goalie is going to do.
我建议用上次的方法,作图来表示在我对门将的策略,存在某种信念下,我的预期收益
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They might say my sample period was off, ... but that's what the theory-- ... using my data for the sample period that I computed-- the expected returns and co-variances says one should do.
他们可能说我的采样周期是有问题的，不过我的结果都是靠理论-,我采用自己收集的数据计算出-,预期收益和协方差可以用来指导我们的投资行为。
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On the vertical axis I'll put two vertical axes in, just for the sake of things on the vertical axis I'll put my expected payoffs.
坐标系的纵轴,由于种种原因,我花了两个纵轴,纵轴表示我的预期收益
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So very similar idea, but the only thing is, I'm slightly abusing notation here by saying that my payoff depends on my strategy and a belief, but what I really mean is my expected payoff.
这和以前的概念差不多,唯一的不同,就是我这里稍微用了一些数学符号,来表述策略带来的收益与所持信念有关,这里的收益指的是预期收益
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It maximizes my expected payoff.
它最大化了我的预期收益
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I don't find that my analysis is profound in the final answer, I just took some estimates using my data and, again, we could-- if someone wanted to argue with us they could argue with my estimates of the expected returns of the standard deviations and the covariances, but not with this theory.
我在计算过程中并没有做太深入的分析，我只是用我的数据做了一下大概的估计,我再说一次，我们可以-,如果有人想就这个问题与我们争辩,他们可以争论我对期望收益的估计,或是争论标准差和协方差的估计值，但并不会针对理论本身。
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What about my expected payoff from choosing Middle against , so in this case where I think it's equally likely that my opponents going to choose Left or Right?
那我在情况下,选中的预期收益是什么呢,在此情况下我依然认为,对手选左选右的可能性相同
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And here's my green line representing my expected payoff as the shooter, from shooting to the right, as a function of the probability that the goalie dives to the right.
这条绿线表示作为一个罚球球员,我从右路射门的收益,是门将扑向右路概率的一个函数
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How about my expected payoff from choosing Down versus ?
那在情况下我选下的预期收益呢
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So what we're going to look at is the expected payoff of Up versus, let me call it a : a being equally likely that my opponent chooses Left and Right.
所以接下来我们看看在我认为对手,选择左右的可能性相同下的预期收益,我们把它称为
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