Now, I think that ultimately--interestingly enough, Los Angeles had a real estate boom and bust in the 1880s; that's hard to believe.
现在,我认为这非常有意思,19世纪80年代洛杉矶经历了房地产的,繁荣和萧条,这难以置信
multi-billion dollar industry in Nashville, behind LA, Los Angeles,
几十亿美元的乡村音乐产业,仅次于洛杉矶
Look what the housing--the blue line shows what home prices in real terms have done in Los Angeles over the last thirty years.
看看房地产的情况...那条蓝线,显示了在过去30年中以实际价格计算的,洛杉矶房屋价格走势
Here's an example that highlighted in the block there are the--is a farm called Fairview Gardens, that's outside of Los Angeles, in suburban Los Angeles, and so that's--the bracketed part is the farm in 1954.
这里有个例子,图片中的黑框,是一个叫做美景花园的农场,它位于洛杉矶城区之外,在洛杉矶城郊,圈起来的部分,是在1954年的样子
Now, you used to have-- there was a very famous cover of The New Yorker in which you had a map of the United States as seen from New York, and where you had New York, and then you had this sort of large ditch that finally--then, Los Angeles was half a football throw away, and everything in the middle was just sort of desert, basically.
现在,你们曾见过,这是纽约客杂志一张十分有名的封面,这张地图表现的是从纽约的角度看全美国,纽约在这里,这是一条极长的鸿沟,最终,洛杉矶有半个橄榄球场那么远了,图片中心的所有东西基本就是沙漠
In the 1880s --a view arose that Los Angeles was just the most wonderful place on Earth.
在19世纪80年代出现了一个观点,那就是洛杉矶是地球上最完美的地方
We compared Los--we couldn't go back in a time machine and do questionnaire surveys in the 1880s, but we could do it in the 1980s.
我们不能坐着时光机,回到19世纪80年代去做问卷调查,但是在20世纪80年代却可以
What caused--that's the-- I wanted to show you one city -I actually do a short comparison between a couple of cities -Los Angeles and Milwaukee.
原因是什么,我给你们看看一座城市,我在两座城市之间做了个简单比较,洛杉矶和密尔沃基
In 1988, when there was a boom in California, but of course not in Milwaukee, the average person in Los Angeles thought home prices would go up 10% a year for the next ten years --that's the median, I'm sorry.
988年加利福尼亚出现了繁荣,当然,在密尔沃基则没有出现,洛杉矶的人们普遍都认为房屋价格,会在未来十年内以每年10%的速度,上升,应该是中间价,不好意思
The lesson is, I think, that we have a glamour-city phenomenon-- that excitement about real estate prices-- centered in places like Los Angeles, but it's spreading and becoming more and more of a national phenomenon and that's the bubble.
我想,教训就是,一种"魅力之都"现象,刺激了房地产的繁荣,起始于像洛杉矶这种城市,随后广为扩散,逐渐演变成一种全国性的现象,这就是泡沫
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