Finally, let's do it in green, let's look at the payoffs, the expected payoffs if I shoot to the right.
最后,用绿线来表示吧,我们来看看我从右路射门的预期收益
So it's harder and... But I mean, exams themselves are not much harder than what I expected them to be.
所以这难一点……但是考试本身没有比我想象的难多少。
And check the answers, and say yeah that's what we expected. But it also involves reasoning. About why that's an appropriate set of inputs to test it on it.
然后说对,这就是我想要的结果,但是它跟推理也有关系,表现在关于为什么这是一个,测试我们程序的适合的输入集。
It's the world portfolio, it's everything and we compute the expected return on that portfolio, rm that's rm.
这就产生了世界投资组合,然后我们在此基础上计算出预期收益,所得值就是。
As we expected, it's less than one, and of course if we build an engine, we want it to be as high as possible, as close to one as possible.
就像预先期待的一样,效率小于一,当然如果我们建造一台热机,我们希望效率越高越好,尽可能接近一。
It's the expected payoff to Player 1 if shooting to the left as it depends on the probability that the goal keeper dives to the right.
它表示参与人1,从左路射门的预期收益,与门将扑向右路的概率有关
So it's centered at this frequency that was expected, but it's actually split into two different frequencies.
它的中心在预计频率处,但劈裂成两个不同频率。
As much as we know about tobacco in the United States and the fact that there are only half the number of people smoking than used to be the case, it's still expected to rise by 45% worldwide By 2030 the deaths attributed to smoking will increase from four to ten million.
就我所知美国的烟民情况,在美国吸烟的人数,只有过去的一半,在世界范围内仍有预计45%的增长,到2030年,死于吸烟的人数,将由四百万增长至一亿
The Federal Funds Rate was recently cut to 2.25% and it's expected to be cut further because of the recession that we're now apparently in.
联邦资金利率最近被,缩减到2。25%,并且仍被认为要缩减,原因就在于我们现在历经的经济衰退。
You want to, for any given expected return, you want to minimize the standard deviation, so it's the left-most line and that means that everyone will be holding the same portfolio.
你希望,在期望收益固定的情况下,你肯定希望将标准差最小化,而这条线是最左边的线,这就意味着所有人,都愿意持有这样的投资组合。
So one way to think about it is, is the expected distance from her of the winning candidates, is: with probability of a half it's herself so that's nothing, No distance, and with probability of a half it's two places away.
所以一种考虑的方法是,预期她与获胜者的距离是,由于她有一半获胜的机会所以没有成本,没有距离,且,距她两个位置远的人有另一半获胜的机会
Since this is a concave function, it's not just the expected value.
由于这是一条凹曲线,它不只是期待值
For a couple of reasons. In some ways, this would be nicer, do expected cases, it's going to tell you on average how much you expect to take, but it tends to be hard to compute, because to compute that, you have to know a distribution on input.
关注最快的情况,在某种意义上来说,因为一些原因这样想挺不错的,当我们处理一个给定的问题,计算平均时间的时候,是很难计算的,因为你并不知道输入的分布情况,这些输入会是怎么样的呢?
What about my expected payoff from choosing Middle against , so in this case where I think it's equally likely that my opponents going to choose Left or Right?
那我在情况下,选中的预期收益是什么呢,在此情况下我依然认为,对手选左选右的可能性相同
For example, the stock market crash of 1929 is repeatedly re-expected even though it only happened once; it's just prominent in our thinking.
929年股市崩盘,就被反复提及,尽管这只发生过一次,但是人们对它影响深刻
Why did it do that? That's not what I expected.
挺有趣的,噢,怎么回事儿?
So here's the straight line, and this line is the expected payoff to Player I from choosing Down as it depends on the probability that the other person chooses Right, and then once again, we can write down the equation.
这就是第三条直线了,它表示参与人I选择下获得的收益,是另一个参与人,选右概率的一个函数,对于这一条直线,我们依然能够给出方程式
应用推荐