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The theory of the term structure is the theory of how interest rates differ according to maturity or term.
利率期限结构理论就是,怎样由不同的期限,产生不同的利率
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The Federal Funds Rate was 5.5% and then the whole term structure -all the way--almost all the way.
联邦基金利率是5.5%,整个期限结构图,几乎自始至终...
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Now, I want to talk about the term structure of interest rates and that's my next plot here.
接下来我要讲利率期限结构,下一张图是
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We're talking about discount bonds, and then coupon-carrying bonds, and then talk about the term structure of interest rates and why we have interest rates.
我们先讲贴现债券,然后是附息债券,再讲讲利率的期限结构,以及为什么要有利率
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So, you can see the term structure doesn't go up between overnight and three months.
从隔夜拆借利率到三月远期利率这段区间内,利率期限结构没有上扬
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That means, in the simplest-- it's called the expectations theory of the term structure.
这意味着,在最简单的利率期限结构理论,即利率期限结构的预期理论中
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The upward-sloping term structure means that the forward rates are at higher levels.
尾部上扬的期限结构表明,远期利率处于高位
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What he says is those forward rates are what people think interest rates will be in the future and that's called the expectations theory of the term structure.
这里所指的远期利率就是人们预期的,未来利率,我们将这种理论称作,利率期限结构的预期理论
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I showed you a one-year Treasury bill rate for right now-- that's not right now, but you can see I have a one-year and a two-year Treasury bill rate.
一年期国债利率的期限结构图,现在没有了,但你们看过了,一年期和两年期的国债利率
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That's the term structure as of now on the chart.
目前的利率期限结构
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He said that we shouldn't think that the-- the simplest story of the term structure of interest rates, which he expounded there, is that forward rates equal expected future interest rates.
他提出,我们不应该认为,他在书中写道,对于利率期限结构,最简略的概括,是远期利率等于未来利率的期望值
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Forward rates I wrote a survey article years ago about the term structure of interest rates and I wanted to find out who was the originator of the term "forward rate."
远期利率,很多年前我写过一篇,研究利率期限结构的文章,我想知道谁是"远期利率"这个词的创始人
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Look how--this is as of earlier this year; the Federal Funds Rate was at around 4% and it has this huge drop in the term structure and then it starts the upward-sloping.
这是今年早些时候的图形,当时联邦利率徘徊在4%,但期限结构,在此处急转直下之后又开始掉头向上
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I showed you the term structure.
你们看过利率期限结构图了
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What Hicks said is that in these term structures, actually, I've just showed the one-period, he had one-period forward rate-- but you could do it over any combination and you can get forward rates of any maturity at any future date.
希克斯指出利率期限结构中,我刚才给你们演示了,希克斯是如何推导一年期远期利率的,但是你们通过其他组合重新推导,还算出未来任意时刻,期限的远期利率
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The idea of a forward rate is that, implicit in that term structure is also a quote for the one-year rate, one year hence, because if you look at the two-year rate, can't you infer back what interest rates are going to be in one year?
远期利率隐含在期限结构中的,一年期利率报价,起息日是第二年初,因为如果你知道了两年即期利率,就可以很自然地推出一年即期利率
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