I made a ton of random things when I was at Harvard and most of them no one ever saw.

我在哈佛写了许多程序,很多都没人见过。

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In order to understand probability, you have to take things as coming from a random event and people don't clearly have that in their mind from an intuitive standpoint.

为了理解概率,你要把事件想象成是随机发生的,但人们没有那样,清晰直观的认识

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This is a game where you get a little plastic device, it's got 15 plastic numbers on it and one hole in this little plastic board and you can move those numbers up, down, left to right, and the goal is to take what's a random assortment of tiles and arrange them in numeric order and that's one of these little things you can play sort of absentmindedly.

在这个游戏中，你会拿到一个可塑的装置，上面有15个数字和一个孔,你可以将数字上下移动，左右移动，目标就是,拿到一个随机的组合后,将其按数字顺序排列,这个你可以随便玩玩。

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When you look at a random walk you have the intuitive impression that you can extrapolate it -that it doesn't look like -you can't believe it's really random, but the reason you can't is because you overweigh the probability of certain things that caught your attention.

当人们观察随机漫步序列时会有直观印象,并可以以此类推,虽然这看起来并不像...,人们不会觉得这是完全随机的,之所以如此,是因为,人们过分高估了特定事物发生的可能性,这吸引了人们的注意

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选