"The one thing which one can say about this election -- and we haven't been able to say this for any election within living memory -- is that the only certain thing is that we cannot predict the outcome, even on the day before the poll."

VOA: standard.2010.05.05

Certain kinds of financial markets called "Prediction markets," which may, for example, predict the outcome of an election have been seen to be very accurate predictors, often better than pollsters can manage.

人们称这种金融市场为,"可预测的市场",举个例子来说,市场对某次大选结果的反应,比民调专家,还要更加准确

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选