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Here I was, back at Yale, with a billion dollar portfolio -it seemed like a lot of money at the time no portfolio management experience.
那时我在耶鲁,要管理上十亿美元的投资组合,在当时,那是笔巨款,而我却没有任何投资组合管理经验
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In that year, we were early on in terms of diversifying the portfolio -we'd only been working on that program for two years -and even so,the negative return was less than 1%, so it was a modest negative return.
在那一年,我们还处于投资组合多元化的初期,刚刚开始2年,即便如此,股灾时我们的亏损小于1%,这只是一个轻微的亏损
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I wrote my first book--I already talked about that, Pioneering Portfolio Management--that deals with the challenges that face institutional investors.
我写的第一本书,我已经提到过了,《机构投资的创新之路》,讨论了机构投资者所面临的挑战
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What I did in this diagram is I computed the efficient portfolio frontier-- now it's the blue line with three assets.
在这张图表中,我计算了有效边界-,蓝色线表示三种资产的组合。
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.. I computed the efficient portfolio frontier for various-- it's the efficient portfolio frontier using the formula I just gave you.
我计算了来自不同组合有效边界-,这一条有效投资组合边界,就是用刚刚给出的公式算出来的。
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There's no correlation between them ... and that means that the variance-- and I want to talk about equally-weighted portfolio.
它们之间没有相关性,也就是说。。。方差-,我想讲一下,权重相等的投资组合。
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.. I can achieve any combination-- I can achieve any point on that by choosing an allocation of my portfolio.
我可以得到任意组合-,可以任意分配投资组合中,各种投资的比重。
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Such a person might pick a point up here and that would be a portfolio with--a leveraged portfolio.
那样的人可能会在这里选一个点来投资,那就是一个有。。。这是个杠杆投资组合。
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The overall conclusions are that, with respect to asset allocation, you want to create an equity-oriented diversified portfolio.
总而言之,在资产配置方面,你要创造一个股权导向的多元化投资组合
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.. You want to get it-- if you keep adding assets, you can do better and better on your portfolio standard deviation.
你想得到-,如果不断增加资产,组合的标准差就会越来越小。
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This portfolio, the minimum variance portfolio, is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds and most of the--many choices you can make.
这个最小方差的资产配置是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券,而大部分。。。你可以有许多选择。
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In my diagram, I said that the tangency portfolio-- I estimated that the tangency portfolio is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
在我的曲线图里我有提到切线资产组合-,我估算出切线资产组合是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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It's actually kind of a crusade of mine-- I believe that the world needs more portfolio diversification.
事实上，这是我长期研究的一个方向-,我认为，世界需要更多元化的投资组合。
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But I'm talking here--this is the actually the frontier-- the best possible portfolio consisting of three assets.
但在这里我说的是-,边界表示了三种资产最好的组合。
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The asset pricing model--and this is critical-- assumes everyone is rational and holds the tangency portfolio.
资本资产定价模型是非常重要的模型-,假设每人是理性的，并持有切线资产组合。
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With non-participating--with participating, you are participating in the portfolio outcome that the insurance company is experiencing, so you have some uncertainty about your cash value.
所谓参与式分红保险,是指你的收益来自某个投资组合收益,而这个投资组合是由保险公司来管理的,所以保单的现金价值是不确定的
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I've made a very special case that this is the case of an equally-weighted portfolio.
在这里我假设了一个特例,即一个各项资产权重相等的投资组合。
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In fact, I have it--suppose we have three assets and we want to compute the efficient portfolio frontier, the mean and variance of the portfolio.
事实上，假如我们拥有三种资产,我们想计算有效边界，及投资组合的均值和方差。
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.. If you can find assets that all have-- that are all independent of each other, you can reduce the variance of the portfolio very far.
如果你能找到这样的一些资产-,一些相互独立的资产，就能很大程度上缩小这个投资组合的方差。
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Some of those countries are really reliant on oil, ... so they really have to do-- they really should do a calculation of efficient portfolio frontiers.
有些国家过于依赖石油了，所以他们真的需要-,他们真的应该好好算一算,有效边界。
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What will happen is that Yale will continue to hold a relatively well-diversified portfolio as defined by the range of asset classes in which it invests.
实际上,耶鲁会继续保持,一个相对合理多样化的投资模式,来进行多种资产的投资
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This is a year of financial crises, so I'm warning you ahead that -don't expect a 28% return on the Yale portfolio for the coming year.
金融危机爆发,所以我先提前给大家打预防针,别期望今年耶鲁基金,能延续28%的收益
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2% You could say, I think my portfolio has an expected return of 12%-- that would be better than if it had an expected return of 10%.
如果一个投资组合的预期收益率有-,那就比一个只有10%的投资组合要好。
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So,70% of the portfolio is in absolute return, real assets,private equity, alternatives--broadly defined.
因此资产的70%分布于绝对收益组合,不动产,私募权益等广泛的投资品种中
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Suppose we had a lot of different stocks that we could put into a portfolio, and suppose they're all independent of each other-- that means there's no correlation.
假设我们现在有很多只不同的股票,可以放进我们的投资组合里，同时假设它们都是相互独立的-,也就是说它们之间没有相关性。
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That means that you want to pick, ultimately, a point on this-- this line is tangent to the efficient portfolio frontier with all the other assets in it.
那意味着你会最终会在这上面选一个点-,这条直线是与有效边界相切的,后者包含了所有的资产组合。
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We went to Norway to discuss the--with the Norwegian Government-- their portfolio.
我们去挪威与挪威政府-,讨论他们的投资组合。
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What is it that--First of all, a portfolio, let's define that.
首先，我们来定义一下什么是投资组合。
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But, in between, if some other number, it'll be some blend of the--mean and variance of--the portfolio will be some blend of the mean and variance of the two assets.
但如果是在0和1之间的其他数值，这个投资组合的均值和方差将会是,两项资产各自的均值和方差的综合结果。
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The theory of mutual funds is: nobody is supposed to be holding anything other than-- ... the ideal theory of mutual funds--is holding something other than this tangency portfolio.
共同基金定理是指：,所有人都应该持有-,理想的共同基金定理说,都应该持有这种切线投资组合。
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