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Idle can-- that's exciting. I hadn't expected that answer. All right, your question.
这很令人振奋，我从没想过答案会这样,好，你有什么问题么？
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So something has happened there that wasn't what I expected. Who wants to tell me what that bug is? Yeah?
我已经知道哪一句声明出问题了,一些和我预期不同的事情发生了,有人能告诉我bug在哪儿么？
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In portraying the deity, I would think, if I were to write an epic poem - I would feel that I would be expected to stay within the fairly narrow parameters of religious decorum.
要表现神性，我认为，要是我要写一首史诗的话,-我肯定会觉得不能越出,宗教教义狭窄的界限。
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2% You could say, I think my portfolio has an expected return of 12%-- that would be better than if it had an expected return of 10%.
如果一个投资组合的预期收益率有-,那就比一个只有10%的投资组合要好。
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I want to suggest to you that he did that because a woman is expected to occupy certain conventional roles at this moment, and we see her in one at the very beginning of the novel.
因为在这个时代,女人是被要求扮演,一定的传统角色的，我们在小说的一开始就看到了她。
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What about my expected payoff from choosing Middle against , so in this case where I think it's equally likely that my opponents going to choose Left or Right?
那我在情况下,选中的预期收益是什么呢,在此情况下我依然认为,对手选左选右的可能性相同
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Why did it do that? That's not what I expected.
挺有趣的，噢，怎么回事儿？
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I'm going to drop more than the independence assumption, I'm going to assume that the assets don't have the same expected return and they don't have the same expected variance.
我还想做出一些改动，即这些资产的预期收益率,是各不相同的,方差也是不同的。
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They might say my sample period was off, ... but that's what the theory-- ... using my data for the sample period that I computed-- the expected returns and co-variances says one should do.
他们可能说我的采样周期是有问题的，不过我的结果都是靠理论-,我采用自己收集的数据计算出-,预期收益和协方差可以用来指导我们的投资行为。
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Then, once we did that we could plug that into the formula that I gave you last time and get the standard deviation of the portfolio and the expected return on the portfolio.
再将估算出的数值代入到,上节课给你们的公式中,就能得到资产投资组合的标准差,和该投资组合的预期收益率
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So very similar idea, but the only thing is, I'm slightly abusing notation here by saying that my payoff depends on my strategy and a belief, but what I really mean is my expected payoff.
这和以前的概念差不多,唯一的不同,就是我这里稍微用了一些数学符号,来表述策略带来的收益与所持信念有关,这里的收益指的是预期收益
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The other thing that I mentioned last time was that there seems to be a really big difference between the expected return on the stock market and the expected return on short-term debt.
上节课提到的另一条内容是,股票市场的预期收益,与短期债券的预期收益,存在着巨大差异
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And we already know if I look at the probability of a ?, which is here, that the payoff I get from choosing, the expected payoff I get from choosing up against a is 2.5.
我们已经计算过了概率是?的情况,即在对手概率是的情况下,我选择上我从中获得的,预期收益是2.5
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The basic definition-- the expected value of some random variable x--E--I guess I should have said that a random variable is a quantity that takes on value.
最基本的定义,某一个随机变量X的期望值E,我应该提到过,随机变量是一个可以取值的数
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With the government expected return, we want to make that expected return as a fourth asset-- rf we could call it r4 but I'll call it rf-- it's a special asset.
根据政府的期望收益率，我们将其作为第四种资产-,可以称之为r4，我们写成-,这是个特殊的资产。
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So here's the straight line, and this line is the expected payoff to Player I from choosing Down as it depends on the probability that the other person chooses Right, and then once again, we can write down the equation.
这就是第三条直线了,它表示参与人I选择下获得的收益,是另一个参与人,选右概率的一个函数,对于这一条直线,我们依然能够给出方程式
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This is the payoff to Player I of choosing Middle against Right, and the line in between, this line here, is the expected payoff to Player I of choosing Middle as a function of the probability that other people choose Right.
这条表示对手选右时参与人选中的收益,两个端点中间的线段部分,表示参与人I选右的预期收益,它是对手选右概率的一个方程
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