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You can be in deep water, for example, if you invest in stocks without knowing anything about the stock market.
VOA: special.2009.05.10
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Why would people pay any price for stocks if there weren't some way to get money out?
如果投进去的钱根本拿不出来,人们为什么还要买股票呢
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I'll let you read Siegel and his discussion of this possibility, ... but I think that-- what I want to get now is not necessarily any agreement on whether you believe that there's such a high excess return for stocks.
我会要求你们读西格尔的书,以及他对这种可能性的讨论，但是我认为-,你们并不需要,同意炒股的收益,远远高于其他的投资方式。
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And financial stocks rose after Citigroup reported a profit for those two months.
VOA: special.2009.03.13
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It sets the mean to 0, for s in stocks and then for s in the stocks, it moves it, giving it the bias and the momentum, then it shows the history.
它会让平均值等于，然后，它会改变它们的值，给它一个偏向值和股价势头值，然后它就会显示历史。
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But stocks recovered strongly for the year.
VOA: special.2010.01.01
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Bob Shiller's friend, Jeremy Siegel, wrote a book that has the very simple title, Stocks For The Long Run.
鲍勃·希勒的朋友,杰瑞米·西格尔有一本著作,标题很简单,《股市长线法宝》
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We made a big bet against Internet stocks in 1999 and 2000 that was very profitable for the University.
999年和2000年我们大幅做空互联网股票,为学校赚得了很多利润
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With a different volatility for the stocks because that was also selected randomly, plus some market bias.
或者均匀分布的一个随机值,因为数值选择上的随机性，再加上市场偏好。
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First of all, a lot of people don't seem to even grasp that basic point that you buy stocks for the dividends.
首先,很多人不明确这一基本点,买股票就是为了股利
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I guess you've already looked at Stocks for the Long Run; you've seen 200 years worth of data.
我想你们已经读过《股市长线法宝》,见过长达200年的数据
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They show the expected return on stocks versus bonds or short-term debt for a whole range of countries.
他们对这些国家的股票预期收益与,国债或者短期债券作出比较。
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You can go there and say, I want to buy stocks, and the broker will say fine, we'll set up an account for you.
你去那说,我想买股票,经纪人说,没问题,先给你建个账户
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For every dollar that you had in small stocks at the peak of the market, by the end of 1929, you lost 54% of your money.
崩盘前市场达到峰值时,投在小盘股里的每一分钱,到了1929年底,都会损失54%
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The second book that I'm assigning is Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run.
第二本指定教材是,杰里米·西格尔所著,《长期股票投资》
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Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, says the default should be equities.
杰瑞米·西格尔，在《股票的长期走势》一书中，指出默认的投资方式应该是股票。
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He wrote a book called Stocks for the Long Run, starting in 1993.
他1993年开始写这本《长期股票投资》
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This is the return on stocks for a period of almost 200 years.
这个是200年内股票的投资收益率。
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The title of the book, Stocks for the Long Run-- stocks always outperform other investments for the long run and he says it's not due to selection bias.
书名是为《股市长线法宝》,长期投资中股票总是比其他资产有更高的收益,他认为他在研究中排除了选择性偏差
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That is, arranging for the issuance by corporations of stocks and bonds.
也就是，帮助公司安排销售,证券和股份。
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For him, the optimal portfolio should be very heavily into stocks.
以他的计算结果，最佳投资组合应该是大量投资股票。
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At some point, when your dollars were turning into dimes, you'd say, forget this, this is ridiculous, it doesn't make any sense for me to own these risky small-cap stocks.
当一块钱变成一毛钱,你会说,得了吧,这太荒谬,持有这些高风险的小盘股,对我而言没什么好处
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So, for example, at an annual expected return of 12% if I have a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and oil I can get a standard deviation of something like 8% on my portfolio.
例如，在年预期收益12%的情况下%,我有股票，债券和石油的投资组合,在这个组合里,我的投资组合可以取到8%的标准差。
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Do I buy stocks for dividends?
我买股票是为了股利吗
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I computed the returns on the stocks, bonds, and oil for every year from 1983 and I computed the average returns, which I take as the expected returns, I took the standard deviations, and I took the covariance.
我计算了从1983年以来每年的股票,债券和石油的收益，从而得出平均收益率，这些平均收益率作为预期收益率，然后算得标准差及协方差。
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And then we looked at this little loop before, for i in range number of stocks, I'm going to create two different lists of stocks, one where the moves, or distributions, are chosen from a uniform, and the other where they're Gaussian.
这里的这个小循环，因为i代表股票，我会建立两个不同的股票链表，一个是代表股票价格的移动，或者说是分布，它们是从均匀分布中得出的，而另一个链表是从高斯分布中得出的。
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for the most part, if stocks have done much better if you've bought them at a point that looks cheap on that graph than one that looks expensive.
如果你做得很糟糕的话-多半情况下，you've，done，poorly，if—,如果你通过市场曲线图,在看上去比另外一个时间点便宜的时候买进它们,而股票又表现得非常好。
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