So first, I choose a volatility randomly, from some distribution of possible volatilities 2 from to, in this case, 0.2.
来决定的一个值,所以首先我先随机选择一个浮动值,从可能的浮动值中的分布进行选择,在这个例子中就是0。
With a different volatility for the stocks because that was also selected randomly, plus some market bias.
或者均匀分布的一个随机值,因为数值选择上的随机性,再加上市场偏好。
The first sentence in the argument was, if the people in the room choose random, then they will choose around 50. That's true.
第一句话是,如果教室里的人随机选择,那平均数会落在50左右,这很对
When there's a bad outcome for anyone, that's the outcome of some random draw.
任何人都有走背运的时候,这是随机选择的结果决定的。
And it might occur to some of you that this seems to be an analogy with the Darwinian theory of natural selection where there's a random assortment of random mutations.
也许你们之中会有人觉得,这和达尔文的自然选择理论,看上去很相似,自然选择就是随机突变的随机分配。
As I mentioned before is one example on the risk for breast cancer in women, so you'd randomly assign half to following their usual diet, the other half to an intervention program where people are prescribed a low fact diet, given counseling and interventions from dieticians and things, and then you look to see what happens for risk as people go forward in time.
我之前提过,这例子研究的是,女性的乳腺癌发病率,你将随机选择其中一半人按一般习惯饮食,另一半人则参与一个干预计划,其中每人都要食用,由营养学家设计推荐的低脂肪菜单,然后再看随着时间推移,被试者的发病率是怎样变化的
About how to debug programs where random choices are being made.
我们会谈谈当程序中,存在随机选择的时候怎么去调试程序。
The problem is that people in the room aren't going to choose at random.
问题是教室里的人并不会随机选择
And then I'll create this function, d1 this distribution d 1, which will, whenever I call it, give me a random, a uniformly selected value between minus and plus volatility.
然后我会创建这个函数,这个概率分布,每次我调用这个函数的时候,他会给我返回一个随机的,按照均匀分布,从正负浮动值之间选择的值。
If people in the room choose randomly between 1 and 100, then the average is going to be around 50 say and two-thirds of 50 is around 33, 33 1/3 actually.
如果大家在1到100之间随机选择,平均数会是50左右,而50的2/3大概是33,确切地说是33 1/3
The point here is when you're playing a game, you want to think about what other people are trying to do, to try and predict what they're trying to do, and it's not necessarily a great starting point to assume that the people around you are random number generators.
这里的要点是当你在进行游戏时,你想要推测出其他人的想法,想要推测出他们可能的选择,假设别人是随机数生成器可不是,一个很好的出发点
Good, so even if everyone in the number-- everyone in the room didn't choose randomly but they all chose a 100, a very unlikely circumstance, but even if everyone had chosen 100, the highest, the average, sorry, the highest two-thirds of the average could possibly be is 66 2/3, hence 67 would be a pretty good choice in that case.
好的,如果每个人,教室里的每个人不是随机选择数字,而是全选了100,这好像不太可能,但如果每个人真的都选了100,就是最大的书,那平均数,抱歉,平均数的2/3会是66又2/3,此情况下67应该是个不错的选项
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