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We're going to assume that everybody knows the possible strategies everyone else could choose and everyone knows everyone else's payoffs.
我们假设,每个人都知道其他人可能选择的策略,每个人都知道其他人的收益
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But it is the case that they're dominated once we delete the dominated strategies: once we delete 67 and above.
但一旦我们剔除了原劣势策略,即选择67及大于67的数之后,他们才是劣势策略
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I think market timing,as I've defined it, has to do with short-term deviations from your long-term policy targets.
正如我之前定义的,市场时机选择,是偏离长期策略目标的,短期操作
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Let's assume that you've won the lottery, and have serious money that you foolishly wish to invest in the stock market There are two basic strategies to choose from in investing.
让我们假设你赢了彩票，然后又一大笔钱,而你很傻的想要投资到股票中去,有两个投资策略,可以选择。
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So we showed this choice was better and this choice was better, and we're going to keep on going.
我们证实了这个选择更好,而且这个策略更好,我们接下来继续计算
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Because everyone's going to pick the dominant outcome and then everyone's going to get the worst result - the collectively worst result.
因为每个人都会选择优势策略,而导致结果变糟,使总结果变的更糟
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So he says that position 1, strategy 1, choosing the most extreme left wing position is a dominated strategy.
他说到立场1,也就是策略1,即选择最极端的左翼立场,是劣势策略
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We said players should never play a strategy that's never a best response to anything, so we threw those away.
我们学到了参与人不应该选择,非最佳对策的策略,应该剔除它们
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What probabilities are associated with thinking it's twice as likely they're going to choose Left than Right?
那么在选左是选右的可能性的二倍时,选择每个策略的概率是多少呢
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That's a third of the people who seem to be choosing a dominated strategy or is it?
为什么有三分之一,会选择劣势策略呢
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So we know that all the numbers between 45 and 30, these strategies were not dominated.
所以可知选择30至45之间的数,这样的策略在原博弈中并不是劣势的
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That seems a pretty good way to predict how other people are going to play.
这似乎是预测别人,选择策略的一个不错的方法
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So it's not the case that the strategies between 45 and 67 are dominated strategies.
所以在那种情况下,选择45至67之间的数并不是劣势策略
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And we've got the choices they actually did make: that's the strategy profile.
我们还有他们每个人已经选择的策略,即策略组合
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The reason I don't want to play a strictly dominated strategy is, if instead, I play the strategy that dominates it, I do better in every case.
我不选择严格劣势策略的原因是,要我选了优势策略,我在每次博弈都得到更好的收益
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Now since we think that Hannibal, the attacker, is not going to play a weakly dominated strategy, we think Hannibal is not going to choose the hard pass.
好了,既然我们认为入侵者汉尼拔,不会选择弱劣势策略,我们认为汉尼拔不会选择崎岖之途
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It is true that by both choosing, by both following this lesson and not choosing the dominated strategy Beta, we ended up with payoffs, , that were bad.
如果我们都不去选择,劣势策略β,我们的收益就是次优的收益
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So rational choice in this case, people not choosing a dominated strategy; people choosing a dominant rational choice can lead to outcomes that - what do Americans call this?--that "Suck."
理性的选择,即本案例中人们不去选择劣势策略,反而选择优势策略,使总结果变得,美国人怎么说的,"糟糕"
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We've got the choices they could make: that's their strategy sets.
我们有他们可能选择的策略,就是策略集合
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It seems as though while you don't have a dominating strategy, it seems like Hannibal is better off attacking through-- It seems like he would attack through the easy pass.
虽然看起来你好像没有优势策略,但似乎汉尼拔将军最好的选择是,他应该会选择从平坦之途入侵
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There's a more general lesson here, and the more general lesson is, of course: do not choose a strategy that is never a best response to anything you could believe.
从中可以总结出一个更普遍的规律,这个普遍规律就是,不要选择一个在任何情况下,都不是最佳对策的策略
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We also saw in that numbers game last time that in some games, but by no means all games, in some games this process actually converges to a single choice.
我们同样可以发现,在某些博弈中,不是所有的博弈,迭代剔除劣势策略,最终会导致唯一的选择
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We know people are not going to choose those choices.
我们知道大家不会选择这些策略
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Don't play a strictly dominated strategy, anything else?
不要选择劣势策略,还有吗
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So four more people chose those strategies.
注意有四名同学选择这样的策略
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Don't play a strictly dominated strategy.
不要选择劣势策略
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The reason I never want to play a strictly dominated strategy is, if instead I play the strategy that dominates it, whatever anyone else does, I'm doing better than I would have done.
为什么我不选择严格劣势策略,因为我要是选优势策略,不管别人怎么选,我总得到更好的结果
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Do not play a strictly dominated strategy.
不要选择严格劣势策略
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So if you think people are going to play a particular way, in particular if you think people are going to choose the strategy of Ryan and Chris, and choose around 33, then 22 seems a great answer.
如果你认为大家会按这种方式推理的话,确切地说就是如果你认为大家会依照,瑞恩和克里斯的策略而选择33的话,22看起来是个不错的选择
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You will always get a higher payoff from choosing 67, at least as high and sometimes higher, than the payoff you would have got, had you chosen 80, no matter what else happened in the room.
选择67的话你总会获得较好的收益,至少也是跟选80的收益一样高,有时候比选80的收益更高,不管别人选择的是什么样的策略
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