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Suppose you could find 10,000 independent assets, then you could drive the uncertainty about the portfolio practically to 0.
假设你能找到一万项相互独立的资产，那么你就可以将这个投资组合的风险,降到几乎为零。
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If you accept my estimates and you accept the capital asset pricing model, that would have to be true.
如果你同意我的估算,而且认同资本资本资产定价模型，那这种投资组合就会带来最大收益。
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You can either have what's called an indexed portfolio, or a managed portfolio.
你可以选择指,数化资产组合，或者代管投资组合。
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What I have up there on the diagram are calculations I made for the efficient portfolio frontier with three assets.
上面的图形是我已经算好的,三种资产的有效投资组合边界。
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This is a special case, though, because I've assumed that the assets are independent of each other, which isn't usually the case.
这是一个特例，因为我假设了,这个投资组合里的资产是相互独立的，但现实中通常都不是这样的。
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The pink line takes two assets, one is stocks and the other is bonds, actually government bonds.
粉色线包含两种资产的投资组合，一个股票，另一个是债券，实际上是政府债券。
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The general principle of portfolio management is: you want to include as many assets as you can.
投资组合管理总的原则是：,不同的资产越多则组合越佳。
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The first, asset allocation, basically deals with which assets you have in your portfolio and in which proportion you hold each of those assets.
首先,资产配置主要是指,你的投资组合包括哪些资产,以及每种资产所占的比例
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Now, I want to talk about forming a portfolio where the assets are not independent of each other, but are correlated with each other.
现在我要建立这样的一个投资组合,在这个组合里各项资产并不是相互独立的，而是相互关联的。
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Portfolio management pools risks in a different way: by assembling a diversified portfolio or a portfolio that's negatively correlated with a risk that someone has.
而投资组合管理采用了不同的方式,多元化的资产配置,或者风险负相关性的,投资组合
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From then on,if you accept the analysis and the assumptions or the estimates that underlie it, then we pretty much know how to construct portfolios.
如果你们理解了整个分析过程,假设前提以及各项资产的有关估算,就能知道该怎样建立一个投资组合
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I've made a very special case that this is the case of an equally-weighted portfolio.
在这里我假设了一个特例,即一个各项资产权重相等的投资组合。
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Are you going to hold the market portfolio, index your assets, match the markets results?
你是应该持有市场投资组合,指数化资产,获取与市场一致的回报率
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In fact, I have it--suppose we have three assets and we want to compute the efficient portfolio frontier, the mean and variance of the portfolio.
事实上，假如我们拥有三种资产,我们想计算有效边界，及投资组合的均值和方差。
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The best possible portfolio that you can get would be points along this straight line.
你所能得到的最佳资产投资组合,就是这条线上的一系列点。
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.. If you can find assets that all have-- that are all independent of each other, you can reduce the variance of the portfolio very far.
如果你能找到这样的一些资产-,一些相互独立的资产，就能很大程度上缩小这个投资组合的方差。
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A portfolio is the collection of assets that you have financial assets, tangible assets.
一个投资组合就是你拥有的资产的集合,例如金融资产，有形资产。
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So, you can see that those are the two raw portfolios.
这些都是两种单一资产的投资组合。
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The first problem set asked you to manipulate the model that I just presented-- the model of how you form portfolios and the model of the capital asset pricing model.
第一道习题,考察的是你们能否活用我刚刚给出的几个模型-,包括怎样构成投资组合的模型,和资本资产定价模型。
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But, in between, if some other number, it'll be some blend of the--mean and variance of--the portfolio will be some blend of the mean and variance of the two assets.
但如果是在0和1之间的其他数值，这个投资组合的均值和方差将会是,两项资产各自的均值和方差的综合结果。
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That would mean that everybody is holding that same portfolio of risky assets and nobody is different, they're only different in how-- what proportions they hold the risky-- the tangency portfolio.
这就意味着每个人,都持有相同风险资产投资组合,每人都是一样的，他们唯一的不同在于-,他们所持有风险资产的比例-,也就是切线资产组合。
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When you add another asset, you do better when you have three assets, you do better than if you just had two because there's more diversification possible with three assets than with two.
当你增加一种资产，有三种资产的时候，投资组合的表现会比两种资产时更好,因为三种资产相比两种资产的情况,可选择的投资组合更多。
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If we want to add that asset to the portfolio, what it does is it produces an efficient portfolio frontier that is now a straight line; I show that on the diagram.
如果我们将其加入到投资组合中去，则会生成一条资产组合的有效边界,即一条直线;,我在图里把它画出来了。
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Then, once we did that we could plug that into the formula that I gave you last time and get the standard deviation of the portfolio and the expected return on the portfolio.
再将估算出的数值代入到,上节课给你们的公式中,就能得到资产投资组合的标准差,和该投资组合的预期收益率
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I'm going to--let's do the two-asset case.
我们来分析一个包括两项资产的投资组合。
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Finally, I just want to say, next lecture is January twenty-eighth and we're going to talk about portfolio diversification, which is one very important application of the fundamental principle of risk management, as applied to securities.
最后，我想说下一讲是在1月28日,到时我们会谈谈资产组合多样化，这是风险管理基本原则中,对证券投资来说，这是非常重要的一项应用。
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If we're all holding the same portfolio, that has to be the total, so that would mean that 9% of all wealth is oil, 9% of all--is oil 27% of all wealth is stocks, and 64% is bonds.
如果我们全都持有相同投资组合，总的投资组合就是如此，那就意味着9%的资产投资石油，市场总体的投资组合就是9%是石油,27%投资股票以及64%投资债券。
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x1 The portfolio mean and variance will depend on x1 x1=1 in the way that if you put--if you made x1 = 1, it would be asset 1 x1=0 and if you made x1 = 0, then it would be the same as asset 2 returns.
投资组合的均值和方差取决于1,如果你令，投资组合的均值方差就与第一项资产相等1,如果你令，那么它们就会与第二项资产的参数相等。
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