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But, we didn't do that many stocks, or that many days, so it's quite plausible that it's correct.
但是我们没有做那么多的股票，也没有实验那么多天。
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I'm now exploring the question of whether or not stock prices are indeed memoryless, or the stock changes.
我现在要探索一个问题那就是股价,是否真的是无记忆的，或者说股票的变化是否是无记忆性的。
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On one level, there are things like companies that have two . different classes of stock that are economically identical.
一方面，我们有这样的例子，有的公司拥有两种,不同类别的股票，他们在经济意义上是相同的。
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And it seems pretty obvious that at least two of the things I'm going to want are stock and market.
很明显,我至少要有的两个类是,股票和市场。
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I start $100 as the average price of the stock, what should the average price of the stock be?
我把100美元作为股票的初始平均值，你们觉得这个股价的平均值应该是多少呢？
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If the stock went up yesterday, it's more likely to go up today, than if it didn't go up yesterday.
如果股票昨天涨了，今天涨的可能性也就更大，如果昨天没涨今天也不大可能会涨。
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That's got the lowest possible standard deviation of expected return and that's 25% stocks and 75% bonds with this sample period.
这个组合预期回报的标准差最小,在这一点上，投资组合,由25%的股票和75%的债券构成。
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Just at the point of maximum opportunity people were at the point of maximum bearishness about the equity markets.
就在最好的投资机会来临的时候,人们对股票市场看空的程度,却刚好达到顶峰
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But that no particular stock is more or less likely to outperform the market, because all the information is incorporated in the price.
但是没有那一种特殊的股票是,最有可能比市场平均表现更好的，因为所有信息都是包含在价格上的。
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If I wanted every stock to have the same volatility, I could just do that, if you will, at the time I wrote my program.
如果我希望每只股票的浮动值都相同，在我编写程序的时候，如果你愿意的话，我会这么做。
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Some people don't even know what a dividend is, they just think of stock as something whose price goes up.
有些人甚至都不知道股利是什么,他们仅仅把股票想象为一种会升值的玩意
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Well, Goodbody & Company is supposed to have your shares but they generally hold them in what's called "Street name."
古德巴迪公司应该留有你的股票,不过一般是以行号代名方式持有
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So in a sense, it's all the same to me as a shareholder whether they pay dividends or they repurchase shares.
所以某种意义上,对股东来说是一样的,不管是支付股利还是回购股票
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If you're investing with a long time horizon, having an equity bias makes sense; stocks go up in the long run.
如果进行长线投资,且存在股权偏好,那么从长期看,股票是上涨的
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After all, I'm going to try and build a simulation of the stock market, so I might as well have the notion of a market, and probably the notion of a stock.
不管怎样,我得建立一个股票市场的仿真程序，所以我最好要有股票的概念，和股市的概念。
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Well there actually was a stock market in Russia before 1918 and in China before 1949, so what happened to investors?
实际上,俄罗斯在1918年前,中国在1949年前设有股票市场,那么投资者会得到怎样的回报呢
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So, the more enlightened view is, corporations only pay a stock dividend when they have some good news to announce.
所以更有说服力的观点是,公司发放股票股利的唯一原因是,他们有利好消息要公布了
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If the company increases the number of shares through a split that is not dilution because it doesn't really mean anything.
如果公司通过股票分割来增加总股数,这不是摊薄,因为没有发生实质性变化
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I also have up on the website some questions that I asked investors about what they think about picking stocks.
我在网站上也上传了一些思考题,是我曾经问过一些投资者的问题,他们怎样挑选股票
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That's so basic, it must have happened a million times and that's the basic idea of the stock market.
这是很基础的概念,早已屡见不鲜,而这就是股票市场的最初思想
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But if I would confine myself just to stocks and bonds, then I would get a much higher standard deviation.
但若组合里只有股票和债券，我的标准差会高得多。
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They'll buy stocks because they think price is going to go up and make them a lot of money.
购买股票,是因为他们认为股价会上升,从而可以赚很多钱
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After that I want to talk about the stock market and I want to--there's a lot to talk about.
在后面我会讲到股票市场,我会讲到很多知识
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Indexed portfolios, you basically say, I want to own all of the stocks that there are, and if the stock market goes up, I make money, if the stock market goes down, I lose money.
指数化资产组合，使之我拥有这些股票，如果股市走高，那么我就赚钱，如果股市走低我就赔钱。
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They may fluctuate wildly, but if I look at enough stocks, the average should be right around 100.
他们可能会有很大的改变，但是如果我看过足够多的股票，平均值还是应该在100左右。
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And indeed it is the case that the price of the stock the amount of move, tends to be proportional to the price of the stock.
实际上它就是股票的价格,移动量，它们都倾向于和股票价格成正比。
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This is since 1802-- now how many countries do you think have uninterrupted stock market data since 1802?
西格尔使用的数据始于1802年...,你们想想现在有多少的国家,存有从1802年以来,股票市场的完整数据呢
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So the total number of shares is almost-- the tendency to do splits is a cultural thing; it's of no real significance.
所以股票总数几乎是个,这种分割的趋势是文化使然,没有实际的意义
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It surprises many people that stocks have paid such an enormous premium over the return on short-term debt.
很多人没有想到的是,股票相比短期债券而言,存在一个巨大的溢价。
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Sometimes companies will announce that they are paying not a cash dividend, but they're paying a stock dividend.
有时公司会宣布,他们不发放现金股利,取而代之的是股票股利
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