Underlying this analysis, we have estimates of the expected returns on assets, notably, the expected returns on stocks and bonds.
凭借这个分析,我们可以估算出资产预期投资收益,特别是股票和债券的预期收益。
Why would you put any of your assets in bonds if stocks are going to give you 16,000 times your money?
如果股票收益能有16000倍,为什么还要买债券
They show the expected return on stocks versus bonds or short-term debt for a whole range of countries.
他们对这些国家的股票预期收益与,国债或者短期债券作出比较。
I mean, do you really--you might wonder, aren't people missing something if the excess return is so high of stocks over short-term bonds?
我是指,你们真的。。。你们也会怀疑,这里是不是少了点什么,如果股票收益率高出短期债券收益率那么多?
I computed the average return on stocks over that time period and I computed the average return on bonds over that time period.
我计算了那个时间段的股票平均收益率,和债券平均收益率。
Stocks have paid 4% more a year over this incredibly long time period than short-term bonds.
股票在相当长的一段时间里,每年都比短期债券投资收益率,高出4个百分点。
That term was actually coined by economists, Prescott and Mehra; it's now in general use. That is, it just seems that stocks so much outperform other investments.
这个术语是由经济学家,普雷斯科特和梅拉提出,现在被广泛引用,这表明股票收益远超其他投资
The thing that is very interesting that he finds is the difference, 4%, between the historical real return on stocks and the historical real return on bonds.
非常有趣的是,他发现历史实际股票收益,和历史实际债券收益之间,存在4%的差异。
That could be investor only in bonds or an investor only in stocks, but I also show on here what some other returns are that are available.
表示投资者只投资了债券或者只投资了股票,同时我在这里也展示了,其它可能性组合的收益。
This is the return on stocks for a period of almost 200 years.
这个是200年内股票的投资收益率。
The title of the book, Stocks for the Long Run-- stocks always outperform other investments for the long run and he says it's not due to selection bias.
书名是为《股市长线法宝》,长期投资中股票总是比其他资产有更高的收益,他认为他在研究中排除了选择性偏差
You can see that the stock market has been more volatile than the earnings and the price of a share is many times higher than the earnings per share.
你可以看到,股票市场波动性大于其收益,每股价格往往是,每股收益的几倍之多
What Siegel emphasized--the book is really about this-- he talks about what is the expected return of stocks and what is the expected return of bonds and so on.
西格尔强调的是。。。这书真正讲的是-,他讨论了什么是股票预期投资收益,以及什么是预期投资债券等等内容。
It went--that's that famous minus 100% return, right, which dominates everything.
答案是负100%的收益率,整个股票市场收益率皆如此
When we were taking 90% of dividends that was 90% of the stock market being taken by the government; but that's not all because we were also taxing the corporations.
当我们从股利中征收90%的税,也就是股票市场收益中的90%都被政府拿走,这还不算完,因为公司获得利润后也要交税
I want to put down on this axis the return on the stock market and on this axis I want to put the return on one company, let's say Microsoft.
我把这个轴作为股票市场的收益,这个轴作为某个公司的收益,比如说微软
So, for example, at an annual expected return of 12% if I have a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and oil I can get a standard deviation of something like 8% on my portfolio.
例如,在年预期收益12%的情况下%,我有股票,债券和石油的投资组合,在这个组合里,我的投资组合可以取到8%的标准差。
he says, all investing is about coupon clipping and the difference between equities and bonds are that bonds come with a coupon that's known and equities have earnings in the future that you don't know.
他说,所有的投资都是关于票息剪券的,股票和债券的区别是,债券有确定的票息,而股票的收益发生在未来,你是无法确定的。
The other thing that I mentioned last time was that there seems to be a really big difference between the expected return on the stock market and the expected return on short-term debt.
上节课提到的另一条内容是,股票市场的预期收益,与短期债券的预期收益,存在着巨大差异
What most people are doing when they go into a mutual fund is they're trying to find smart people who will beat the market-- who will pick those stocks that will do well.
大多数人投资共同基金,实际是在寻找聪明之辈,来帮助他们获取更高收益率...,来挑选表现最为优异的股票
He said all this--this thing that I have up here-- well the previous slide, showing the dividend earnings ratio--it's just cultural; it means nothing because, to some extent, what's not shown in that diagram was the stock repurchase.
他是这么描述的,在这里,在上一张幻灯片中,展示了股利收益比,这跟文化相关,但却无意义,在某种意义上,在图表中没有展示出股票回购
I computed the returns on the stocks, bonds, and oil for every year from 1983 and I computed the average returns, which I take as the expected returns, I took the standard deviations, and I took the covariance.
我计算了从1983年以来每年的股票,债券和石油的收益,从而得出平均收益率,这些平均收益率作为预期收益率,然后算得标准差及协方差。
The equity orientation drove the returns but the diversification allowed us to deliver those returns in a stable fashion, which is incredibly important for an institution like Yale that requires a steady supply of funds to finance its operations.
股票导向型投资会推动收益率上升,但多元化能让收益更平稳,这对于耶鲁这样的机构极为重要,因为它需要稳定的资金供给,为学校运营提供财务支持
So, ownership of stocks absolutely crushes buying bonds -almost 16,000 times your money or more than 3,000 times your money in the stock market as opposed to 72 times your money or 19 times your money in the bond market or the bill market.
股票的收益率远远超过债券,小盘股的收益差不多16000倍于本金,而大盘收益也翻了300倍以上,相比长期债券的72倍,和短期债券的19倍
As you can see, part of the reason why the dividend-earnings ratio-- especially in more recent years, since 1990-- has been declining is that corporations were trying to somewhat ease the tax burden on their shareholders by doing repurchase instead of dividend.
可以看出,股利收益比降低的部分原因,尤其是在近些年,从1990年起,有所降低的原因是,公司想通过将分红,改为股票回购的方法,多少减轻股东的税负
The price of a share is the price of the ownership of that earnings' stream If I buy a share I'm in with everyone else who owns the company and I have a claim on the earnings' stream, but the earnings' stream is a year-by-year thing.
每股价格是指,收入所有权的价格,如果我和其他股东一样买了一份股票,那么我就对收益有要求权,但收益是逐年计算的
of a stock is how much it reacts to movements in the market portfolio.
一只股票风险指标β系数直接反应出,The,β,市场组合变动与投资收益的相关性。
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