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But, we didn't do that many stocks, or that many days, so it's quite plausible that it's correct.
但是我们没有做那么多的股票，也没有实验那么多天。
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I'm now exploring the question of whether or not stock prices are indeed memoryless, or the stock changes.
我现在要探索一个问题那就是股价,是否真的是无记忆的，或者说股票的变化是否是无记忆性的。
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On one level, there are things like companies that have two . different classes of stock that are economically identical.
一方面，我们有这样的例子，有的公司拥有两种,不同类别的股票，他们在经济意义上是相同的。
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I start $100 as the average price of the stock, what should the average price of the stock be?
我把100美元作为股票的初始平均值，你们觉得这个股价的平均值应该是多少呢？
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If I wanted every stock to have the same volatility, I could just do that, if you will, at the time I wrote my program.
如果我希望每只股票的浮动值都相同，在我编写程序的时候，如果你愿意的话，我会这么做。
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I'm gonna keep as part of each stock, it's history of prices, which we can initialize, well, I've initialized it as empty, but that's probably the wrong thing, right?
我会把股票的历史价格，作为每只股票的一部分，我们可以先对它的历史价格进行赋值，好了，我先给它赋了空值，但是这样做可能不对，是吗？
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I won't be able to show you what a market does unless I have stocks, but I can look at what an individual stock does without having a market.
我不会在没有股票的时候,就给你讲股市应该是怎么样的，但是我可以在没有股市的情况下,先去看单独的股票。
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That's got the lowest possible standard deviation of expected return and that's 25% stocks and 75% bonds with this sample period.
这个组合预期回报的标准差最小,在这一点上，投资组合,由25%的股票和75%的债券构成。
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After all, I'm going to try and build a simulation of the stock market, so I might as well have the notion of a market, and probably the notion of a stock.
不管怎样,我得建立一个股票市场的仿真程序，所以我最好要有股票的概念，和股市的概念。
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So, the more enlightened view is, corporations only pay a stock dividend when they have some good news to announce.
所以更有说服力的观点是,公司发放股票股利的唯一原因是,他们有利好消息要公布了
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They may fluctuate wildly, but if I look at enough stocks, the average should be right around 100.
他们可能会有很大的改变，但是如果我看过足够多的股票，平均值还是应该在100左右。
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And indeed it is the case that the price of the stock the amount of move, tends to be proportional to the price of the stock.
实际上它就是股票的价格,移动量，它们都倾向于和股票价格成正比。
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This portfolio, the minimum variance portfolio, is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds and most of the--many choices you can make.
这个最小方差的资产配置是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券,而大部分。。。你可以有许多选择。
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So, there's been a number of articles that documented that stock prices tend to jump shortly after options are issued to managers.
有一些文章记载表明,在公司发给经理们股票期权之后,股票的价格往往会出现短期激涨
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If you really want to buy the company, you buy up all its equity-- all of its shares--and all of its debt.
如果你想买下公司,就得买下所有股份,所有的股票,还有所有的债务
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Technically, Fannie and Freddie are private companies -they're traded stocks; you can buy shares in Fannie and Freddie.
技术上,房利美和房地美都是私人公司,它们的股票可流通,你可以购买房利美和房地美的股票
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They show the expected return on stocks versus bonds or short-term debt for a whole range of countries.
他们对这些国家的股票预期收益与,国债或者短期债券作出比较。
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If you had $1 to invest you can borrow $.50 and invest in a $1.50 worth of stocks.
比如你有1美元进行投资,你可以透支0。5美元,投资价值1。5美元的股票。
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Then you make money if the price of the stock rises above, in that case, $11 a share.
如果股票的价格高于十一美元,你就能够盈利
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That is to say, current prices reflect all publicly known information about each stock, and therefore are unbiased.
也就是说，现在的价格,反映了关于股票的所有公共信息,也就是说它是无偏向性的。
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We might or might not have time to come back to that But more generally, the point is, that each stock actually behaves a little bit differently.
我们可能没有时间讲这些问题了,但是一般来说，这里的问题是，每一只股票的表现,都是不一样的。
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And if it goes up 6 percent, well you'll go up 10 percent or more, and if it goes down, don't worry, I'm so smart your stocks won't go down.
如果股市涨了6个百分点，你可以转到10以上的百分点，如果股市跌了，你也不用担心，你选择的人会保证你买的股票不会跌。
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That if people thought that the stock was underpriced well people would buy more of it in the price would have risen already.
如果人们认为股票的价格较低,人们就会买进股票,价格就会增高。
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Because I'm sort of curious as to, again, which is the right way to think about this, And then, I'm going to just call it.
因为我很好奇，正确模拟股票的应该是哪种分布，然后我会调用它。
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And then computes the mean of, getting me the mean of all the stocks in it.
然后再计算平均值，所有股票的平均值。
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In my diagram, I said that the tangency portfolio-- I estimated that the tangency portfolio is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
在我的曲线图里我有提到切线资产组合-,我估算出切线资产组合是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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well, that's the way Wall Street works or at least a -some people say markets are efficient and stock prices incorporate all information.
华尔街就是这么运作的,一些人认为市场是有效的,股票价格是各种信息的综合体现
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Or the company says, congratulations we're repurchasing 2% of your shares and here's a check for $5 to pay you for those shares.
或者公司说,恭喜您我们要回购,您股票的2%,以每股5美元的价格,付给您的支票
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If you buy stock in a company the most you can lose is the money you put up, so that's called limited liability.
如果你买了一个公司的股票,你最多只会赔掉投进去的钱,所以这叫做有限责任
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Of course, the money had to come from somewhere, so bond allocations were at a fifteen-year low.
当然投资股票的钱不是凭空变出来的,于是债券投资所占比例跌至15年来最低
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