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Underlying this analysis, we have estimates of the expected returns on assets, notably, the expected returns on stocks and bonds.
凭借这个分析，我们可以估算出资产预期投资收益，特别是股票和债券的预期收益。
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But if I would confine myself just to stocks and bonds, then I would get a much higher standard deviation.
但若组合里只有股票和债券，我的标准差会高得多。
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That's got the lowest possible standard deviation of expected return and that's 25% stocks and 75% bonds with this sample period.
这个组合预期回报的标准差最小,在这一点上，投资组合,由25%的股票和75%的债券构成。
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The pink line here is the efficient portfolio frontier when we have only stocks and bonds to invest.
这条粉色曲线就是有效边界,这个投资组合只包括了股票和债券。
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In other words, you start saving and you own stocks and bonds, and real estate, and other things.
换言之，你有存款了,有股票和债券，房产，以及其他东西。
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This portfolio, the minimum variance portfolio, is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds and most of the--many choices you can make.
这个最小方差的资产配置是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券,而大部分。。。你可以有许多选择。
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The costs were huge -not just the immediate costs in terms of the move from stocks to bonds.
代价是巨大的,不仅仅是卖掉股票,和买进债券的直接交易成本
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In my diagram, I said that the tangency portfolio-- I estimated that the tangency portfolio is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
在我的曲线图里我有提到切线资产组合-,我估算出切线资产组合是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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I computed the average return on stocks over that time period and I computed the average return on bonds over that time period.
我计算了那个时间段的股票平均收益率,和债券平均收益率。
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But beyond that, if you were confined to just stocks and bonds, it would be a matter of taste where along this frontier you would be.
进一步，若仅限于投资股票和债券的组合，选择哪个组合,取决于个人的兴趣。
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Once they're investigated, their stock prices and their bond prices are going to fall.
一旦这些公司被调查,他们的股票价格和他们的债券价格就会下跌
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Oil, bonds, and stocks are all independent-- somewhat independent--they're not perfectly independent, but they're somewhat independent and, to the extent that they are, it lowers the variance.
石油，债券和股票都是互相独立-,一定程度上独立，不是绝对的独立，但一定程度上独立，可以使方差值变小，降低风险。
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What you could do is, say, borrow $.50 on your $1 and put $1.50 into a portfolio, which consisted of 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
你所做的就是，这么说吧，你用手上的1美元借来了50美分1,然后以这1。5美元购买投资组合，其中包含9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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The thing that is very interesting that he finds is the difference, 4%, between the historical real return on stocks and the historical real return on bonds.
非常有趣的是,他发现历史实际股票收益，和历史实际债券收益之间,存在4%的差异。
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I have stocks, bonds, and oil but I want also to add one more final asset, we'll call it the riskless asset, long-term bonds are somewhat uncertain and variable because they're long-term.
有股票，债券和石油,我还想再增加最后一种资产，我们称之为无风险资产，由于长期债券持有期限很长,存在一定不确定性及风险。
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If you agree with my estimates, then you should do this as an investor, you should hold only some mixture of this tangency portfolio, which is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
如果你赞同我的估计值，那么作为一个投资者的话你应该这么做，你应该只持有,符合这个切线投资组合比例的投资，即9%的石油，27%的股票，和64%的债券。
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The market portfolio is, if you took all the stocks and bonds, and oil, and real estate, anything that's available to invest in, in the whole world, put them all together in one portfolio.
市场组合则是，假设你在全世界范围内购买了所有，能够投资的股票，债券，石油和房地产，将他们放在同一个投资组合里。
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So, for example, at an annual expected return of 12% if I have a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and oil I can get a standard deviation of something like 8% on my portfolio.
例如，在年预期收益12%的情况下%,我有股票，债券和石油的投资组合,在这个组合里,我的投资组合可以取到8%的标准差。
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It's 12% oil, 36% stocks, and 52% bonds.
是12%的石油，36%的股票，和52%的债券。
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he says, all investing is about coupon clipping and the difference between equities and bonds are that bonds come with a coupon that's known and equities have earnings in the future that you don't know.
他说，所有的投资都是关于票息剪券的,股票和债券的区别是,债券有确定的票息,而股票的收益发生在未来,你是无法确定的。
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I computed the returns on the stocks, bonds, and oil for every year from 1983 and I computed the average returns, which I take as the expected returns, I took the standard deviations, and I took the covariance.
我计算了从1983年以来每年的股票,债券和石油的收益，从而得出平均收益率，这些平均收益率作为预期收益率，然后算得标准差及协方差。
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So, now we have n = 3 and in the chart are stocks, bonds, and oil.
图表里n=3表示,股票，债券和石油这三类资产。
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