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Underlying this analysis, we have estimates of the expected returns on assets, notably, the expected returns on stocks and bonds.
凭借这个分析，我们可以估算出资产预期投资收益，特别是股票和债券的预期收益。
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But if I would confine myself just to stocks and bonds, then I would get a much higher standard deviation.
但若组合里只有股票和债券，我的标准差会高得多。
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In our investing experiment that it was come with a puisne at Northwestern, she's now an assistent professor there people saw 3 options, two Stocks and a Bond.
在我们的投资试验中,试验是在西北大学一名晚辈的帮助下完成的，她现在是助理教授,受试者会看到三个选择，其中两个是股票，一个是债券。
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That's got the lowest possible standard deviation of expected return and that's 25% stocks and 75% bonds with this sample period.
这个组合预期回报的标准差最小,在这一点上，投资组合,由25%的股票和75%的债券构成。
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Why would you put any of your assets in bonds if stocks are going to give you 16,000 times your money?
如果股票收益能有16000倍,为什么还要买债券
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It surprises many people that stocks have paid such an enormous premium over the return on short-term debt.
很多人没有想到的是,股票相比短期债券而言,存在一个巨大的溢价。
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They show the expected return on stocks versus bonds or short-term debt for a whole range of countries.
他们对这些国家的股票预期收益与,国债或者短期债券作出比较。
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The pink line here is the efficient portfolio frontier when we have only stocks and bonds to invest.
这条粉色曲线就是有效边界,这个投资组合只包括了股票和债券。
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In other words, you start saving and you own stocks and bonds, and real estate, and other things.
换言之，你有存款了,有股票和债券，房产，以及其他东西。
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This portfolio, the minimum variance portfolio, is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds and most of the--many choices you can make.
这个最小方差的资产配置是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券,而大部分。。。你可以有许多选择。
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The costs were huge -not just the immediate costs in terms of the move from stocks to bonds.
代价是巨大的,不仅仅是卖掉股票,和买进债券的直接交易成本
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In my diagram, I said that the tangency portfolio-- I estimated that the tangency portfolio is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
在我的曲线图里我有提到切线资产组合-,我估算出切线资产组合是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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I computed the average return on stocks over that time period and I computed the average return on bonds over that time period.
我计算了那个时间段的股票平均收益率,和债券平均收益率。
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The pink line takes two assets, one is stocks and the other is bonds, actually government bonds.
粉色线包含两种资产的投资组合，一个股票，另一个是债券，实际上是政府债券。
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Of course, the money had to come from somewhere, so bond allocations were at a fifteen-year low.
当然投资股票的钱不是凭空变出来的,于是债券投资所占比例跌至15年来最低
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Stocks have paid 4% more a year over this incredibly long time period than short-term bonds.
股票在相当长的一段时间里,每年都比短期债券投资收益率,高出4个百分点。
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This is a portfolio, which has all oil and stocks and it has no bonds.
这个投资组合，包括有石油，股票，没有债券。
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But beyond that, if you were confined to just stocks and bonds, it would be a matter of taste where along this frontier you would be.
进一步，若仅限于投资股票和债券的组合，选择哪个组合,取决于个人的兴趣。
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Once they're investigated, their stock prices and their bond prices are going to fall.
一旦这些公司被调查,他们的股票价格和他们的债券价格就会下跌
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Oil, bonds, and stocks are all independent-- somewhat independent--they're not perfectly independent, but they're somewhat independent and, to the extent that they are, it lowers the variance.
石油，债券和股票都是互相独立-,一定程度上独立，不是绝对的独立，但一定程度上独立，可以使方差值变小，降低风险。
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That could be investor only in bonds or an investor only in stocks, but I also show on here what some other returns are that are available.
表示投资者只投资了债券或者只投资了股票，同时我在这里也展示了,其它可能性组合的收益。
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I mean, do you really--you might wonder, aren't people missing something if the excess return is so high of stocks over short-term bonds?
我是指，你们真的。。。你们也会怀疑，这里是不是少了点什么,如果股票收益率高出短期债券收益率那么多？
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I can try other portfolios; this one right here--I'm pointing to a point on the pink line-- that point right there, 50% stocks, 50% bonds.
还可以尝试其它组合;,这一点，粉色曲线上我指的这一点-,表示50%的股票，50%的债券。
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What you could do is, say, borrow $.50 on your $1 and put $1.50 into a portfolio, which consisted of 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
你所做的就是，这么说吧，你用手上的1美元借来了50美分1,然后以这1。5美元购买投资组合，其中包含9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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The thing that is very interesting that he finds is the difference, 4%, between the historical real return on stocks and the historical real return on bonds.
非常有趣的是,他发现历史实际股票收益，和历史实际债券收益之间,存在4%的差异。
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Also, they've paid much more than long-term-- well it's not so different.
同样地，股票也比长期债券回报率高-,但不像短期那样差那么多。
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Well, you could short in the stock market, you could short $.50 worth of stocks and buy $1.50 worth of bonds and that would put you down here.
你可做空股票，卖空价值0。5美元的股票,购买价值1。5美元的债券,这样就落在这一点上。
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What Siegel emphasized--the book is really about this-- he talks about what is the expected return of stocks and what is the expected return of bonds and so on.
西格尔强调的是。。。这书真正讲的是-,他讨论了什么是股票预期投资收益,以及什么是预期投资债券等等内容。
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I have stocks, bonds, and oil but I want also to add one more final asset, we'll call it the riskless asset, long-term bonds are somewhat uncertain and variable because they're long-term.
有股票，债券和石油,我还想再增加最后一种资产，我们称之为无风险资产，由于长期债券持有期限很长,存在一定不确定性及风险。
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So, stocks were cheaper and bonds were more expensive.
于是股票更加便宜,债券更加昂贵
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