So let me turn to a different approach to solving the question, answering the question,which one should we believe?
所以让我用另一个方法来解决这个问题,回答该相信哪一个理论的问题?
Without worrying about the economics of it a second, how would we find that just as a math exercise?
不需要考虑经济学的理论,用数学的方法怎么来求解啊
Hughes tells us that Milton's thinking of Plato and that the Elder Brother is referring to the platonic theory that the noble spirit is released from the body after death.
休斯告诉我们,弥尔顿引用了柏拉图的东西,大哥用的是柏拉图的理论,人死后,高尚的灵魂将从身体释放出来。
So you will sometimes see as you are reading the text, they will sometimes refer to Horeb instead of Mount Sinai, or you'll see the two names used interchangeably. And it's been the theory of scholars that that's because it comes from a different source.
所以,有时在你阅读的文本中,它会提到和烈山,而不是西奈山,或者你会看到这两个名字,互换着用,根据学者的理论解释,这是因为,这两个名字来源于不同的资料。
Again, I don't want to make too much of my estimates because different people would estimate these things in different ways, but that's the theory.
再说一次,我不想太过强调我的估算,因为不同的人,会用不同的方法估算这些数据,但这只是个理论。
So let's think about methane using valence bond theory.
让我们用价电子成键理论来看一看甲烷。
The point is that this cliched suburban life of mowing the lawn, Humbert is a foreigner--into something you can laugh at, something you can enjoy, something that you can apply the knight's move to.
这段话的意思是乡下人民这种修剪草坪,亨伯特是个外国人),变成了一种你感到开心,你很享受,你可以用迂回前进理论理解的事情。
Now, we need to be careful here about what's going on.
用这个理论来解释时需要小心了。
Comus attempts to seduce the Lady, you'll remember, with something like an economic theory of natural beauty.
你们还记得吧,科玛斯试图色诱那位女士,用一套有利可图的自然美的理论。
I want to talk about Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory, which is a very important and a little technical-- psychologists can become mathematical and technical as well.
我会谈到,卡尼曼和特维斯基的前景理论,这是很重要的理论,同时需要一定的数学计算,心理学家也可以精于计算,和擅用技巧
The trouble though is that you tell the very same story two different times and I find myself sometimes being pulled this way, sometimes being pulled that way.
问题在于你把同一个故事用不同方法讲了两次,误导我们有时偏爱肉体理论,有时偏爱人格理论。
The problem is Freud had a very sort of hydraulic theory of what goes on, and some of this stuff slips out and it shows up in dreams and it shows up in slips of the tongue.
问题在于,弗洛伊德用所谓的液压理论,解释了发生的事情,有些受到压抑的欲望,会通过梦境和口误而表现出来。
So there is metaphysical work to be done here.
所以需要用形而上学的理论来解释。
I don't find that my analysis is profound in the final answer, I just took some estimates using my data and, again, we could-- if someone wanted to argue with us they could argue with my estimates of the expected returns of the standard deviations and the covariances, but not with this theory.
我在计算过程中并没有做太深入的分析,我只是用我的数据做了一下大概的估计,我再说一次,我们可以-,如果有人想就这个问题与我们争辩,他们可以争论我对期望收益的估计,或是争论标准差和协方差的估计值,但并不会针对理论本身。
If I can use science fiction to talk about the possibility of splitting, and use that against the personality theory, I'm entitled to use science fiction examples to talk about the possibility of bodies splitting,and ask, what kind of problem that would raise for the body theory?
如果我能用科幻作品来谈论人格的分裂,用来驳斥人格理论,我也可以用科幻作品的例子,来探讨肉体分裂的可能,并提问,那会给肉体理论造成什么问题?
This was something we could not predict using Lewis structures, but we can predict using MO theory that we have a radical species here.
这是我们从Lewis结构里不能预测的,但我们可以用分子轨道理论,预测自由基。
This is by the famous biologist, D'Arcy Thompson, who wrote the book On Growth and Form, and it's sort of the model of many developmental psychologists and many evolutionary psychologists so I'll end with this: "Everything is the way it is because it got that way."
这是著名的生物学家,达西·汤普森所提出的,他写了一本叫做《论生长和形态》的书,这句话也是许多发展心理学家,和进化心理学的理论模型,所以我用这句话来作为结束,"万物如此,皆因其本"
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