Audience: Hi Steve. So earlier in your presentation, you're talking about that it was a great time for innovation and all these ideas were happening and I'm sure you'd seen a lot of these ideas happened over your years at Microsoft.
观众:你好史蒂夫,你之前讲了,你在谈的是现在是创业革新的好时期,各种想法都在萌芽,我想你在微软,工作多年肯定见识过很多很棒的点子。
Okay, so let's talk about the example of smallpox, which is one of the world's great successes in the battle against infectious diseases.
我们现在来谈一谈天花,它是人类与传染病的斗争中,获得的一项伟大胜利
Now, you might think, ? well, didn't we already discuss that when we started thinking about variability?
现在你可能会想,我们不是已经谈过这个了吗,就在我们开始讨论死亡可变性的时候?
I want to come back to your own experiences in this, Rick but I want just go directly to Rick, now you are the director of Outdoor Action.
稍后我们再谈一谈你在这方面的经历,那么现在我想问一下,作为户外活动项目的主任。
But before telling you about this let me sort of Go through some of the hypothesis that we have and That we are now testing about why the subject is Difficult and why these materials assembled what We have assembled them might be useful.
但是谈那之前我要说说,我们之前的一些假设,我们现在正在测试为什么这个学科很难,以及为什么我们整合这些资料是有用的,我们认为把它们整合起来或许有用。
So now, let's make things a little more technical for a moment.
那么现在让我们谈些更具技术性的话题。
I want to move on now to a related topic, one that is very important for psychologist but also for you to apply in your life.
现在我想谈一个相关话题,它对心理学家很重要,对生活应用也很重要。
A famous professor at a distant university was said to have begun his lectures on the Republic by saying, " "Now we will consider Plato, the fascist."
一位在远地的著名教授据说曾,以下列句子,开始讲授《理想国》,“我们现在要来谈柏拉图,法西斯份子“
Now let's go on to the third movement.
现在,接着谈第三乐章
The hedge fund world is 7.1% first to third quartile, real estate 9.3% per annum, leveraged buyouts 13.7% per annum this is over a ten-year period, so now we're starting to talk about some pretty significant dispersion.
在对冲基金中,这个差距有7.1%,不动产投资中的差距是9.3%,杠杆收购中是每年13.7%,以上都是十年期收益,我们现在谈的是,一些显著的差距
Depends on--I don't want to be too rigorous about that because you could imagine the other way around, but if you talk to managers this sounds more realistic, at least for retail goods like Coke and Pepsi.
这方面我不想太绝对,因为你们可能会想象其他的情形,但如果你们和那些经理谈过,现在的模型会更贴近现实,至少对于可乐这样的零售产品而言
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