Underlying it there were other things besides just the calculation of their accident rates that had certain assumptions built in.

但是我们在这些特定假设之下,计算出来的事件概率之外,还有一些事情没有反映出来

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

And in principle, I could redo this calculation for every single possible probability you could think of.

并且理论上,对于每一个可能的概率对,我们都可以进行预期收益计算

耶鲁公开课 - 博弈论课程节选

It uses the binomial distribution to calculate the probability of getting any specific number of accidents.

保险公司就可以用二项分布公式,来计算特定数目事故发生的概率

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

What they did is, they looked at 12 months, they took the months with the most births in it, which happened to be June, and calculated the probability of 3 percent.

俄克拉荷马神枪手谬误，他们看了十二个月的人数，然后选择了出生人数最多的一个月？,正好是6月，然后计算出3%的概率。

麻省理工公开课 - 计算机科学及编程导论课程节选

And we've already agreed that if I think it's equally likely they're going to choose right and left, that there's a probability ?

而且我们已经计算过了,如果我觉得对手,选左选右的概率相同,即他们选右的概率为1/2时

耶鲁公开课 - 博弈论课程节选

It's interesting that this person uses the word calculation; this person has the idea--this was-- 1600 was around the year when probability theory was invented.

有意思的是,这个人用了"计算"这个词,这个人想到了这个主意,概率论正是1600年左右产生的

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

And we already know if I look at the probability of a ?, which is here, that the payoff I get from choosing, the expected payoff I get from choosing up against a is 2.5.

我们已经计算过了概率是?的情况,即在对手概率是的情况下,我选择上我从中获得的,预期收益是2.5

耶鲁公开课 - 博弈论课程节选