Well there actually was a stock market in Russia before 1918 and in China before 1949, so what happened to investors?

实际上,俄罗斯在1918年前,中国在1949年前设有股票市场,那么投资者会得到怎样的回报呢

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Because we hold relatively stable, relatively well-diversified portfolios, security selection turns out not to be an important determinant of returns for most investors and market timing turns out not to be an important determinant of returns.

因为持有相对稳定,和相对分散的投资组合,证券选择不再是,决定投资者回报率的重要因素,而市场时机选择,也不会成为决定回报率的重要因素

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So, it's not surprising that asset allocation explains more than 100% of returns and that, for the community as a whole, market timing and security selection are costly and lower the community's aggregate investment returns.

因此资产配置能解释100%以上的回报,也不足为奇了,对投资者整体来说,市场时机选择,和证券选择是有代价的,降低了总的投资回报

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选