• Well there actually was a stock market in Russia before 1918 and in China before 1949, so what happened to investors?

    实际上,俄罗斯在1918年前,中国在1949年前设有股票市场,那么投资者会得到怎样的回报

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • That's got the lowest possible standard deviation of expected return and that's 25% stocks and 75% bonds with this sample period.

    这个组合预期回报的标准差最小,在这一点上,投资组合,由25%的股票和75%的债券构成。

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • The last man standing is asset allocation and that tends to drive both institutional returns and individual returns.

    能决定回报率的只剩下资产配置,它将决定,机构投资和个人投资回报

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • Because that's true, then asset allocation ends up being the overwhelmingly important determinant of the University's results.

    因为在这种情况下,资产配置,是学校投资回报率的,支配性的决定因素

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • You could always find a portfolio that had a higher expected return for the same standard deviation.

    你总是可以找到一个投资组合,具有较高的预期回报,而标准差不变。

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • When you look at the returns for institutions, you see exactly what it is that you'd expect.

    当你看到金融机构的投资回报率时,你看到的就是你所期望的

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • Are you going to hold the market portfolio, index your assets, match the markets results?

    你是应该持有市场投资组合,指数化资产,获取与市场一致的回报

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • We think that the more interesting investment opportunities are kind of outside of the mainstream with more entrepreneurial firms and ones that might have less traditional backgrounds.

    我们觉得回报更佳的投资机会,并不在那些已经饱和的,主流投资领域中,而可能在那些不那么传统的新兴领域

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • I did it in 1925, but I've got it set up so that I will pay a hundred pounds in 1926 and I'll get this in 1927.

    在25年进行投资操作,并通过安排,在26年投资一百英镑后,于27年收回以上回报

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • How can asset allocation be responsible for more than 100% of investment returns?

    资产配置怎么能决定,100%以上的投资回报

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • But if you look at the tech fund category, the difference between the dollar-weighted and the time-weighted returns--this is over a ten-year period -is 13.4% per annum; that's stunning.

    但是如果你关注科技投资基金,十年间,货币加权回报率,和时间加权回报率间的差距,是每年13.4%,这是非常夸张的

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • This would be good luck if you were long and now suddenly you got a huge return that you would not have thought was possible since you've never seen it before.

    如果你长期持有这份投资,你就走运了,回报如此之高,你自己都没有料到,可能你也从来没有见过这种情况

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • Suppose someone is investing your money and he announces, I have had very good returns. I have invested and I've produced 20% a year for nine out of the last ten years.

    假设一个人帮你投资,而且他声称,我投资回报很高,我过去的十年中有九年的收益都是20%

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • Because we hold relatively stable, relatively well-diversified portfolios, security selection turns out not to be an important determinant of returns for most investors and market timing turns out not to be an important determinant of returns.

    因为持有相对稳定,和相对分散的投资组合,证券选择不再是,决定投资回报率的重要因素,而市场时机选择,也不会成为决定回报率的重要因素

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • But, when you move from lending money to the government -either short-term with bills or longer term with bonds -to investing in the equity market, there's a stunning difference in terms of the returns.

    当你转变投资方式,从借钱给政府,即通过短期债券或长期债券的形式,变成投资于股票市场,回报率的差别会大到让你吃惊

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • So, it's not surprising that asset allocation explains more than 100% of returns and that, for the community as a whole, market timing and security selection are costly and lower the community's aggregate investment returns.

    因此资产配置能解释100%以上的回报,也不足为奇了,对投资者整体来说,市场时机选择,和证券选择是有代价的,降低了总的投资回报

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • If you look at the ten best-performing Internet funds from 1997 to 2002, the time-weighted return is 1.5% per year positive, so the funds went way up and then they went way down.

    这十个表现最好的网络投资基金,从1997年到2002年,时间加权回报率是每年1.5%,基金一路涨涨跌跌

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • He's come to the conclusion that over 90% of the variability of returns in institutional portfolios is attributable to asset allocation and that's the number that I think most people hear cited when they are looking at Roger Ibbotson's work.

    他得出结论,机构投资中,超过90%的回报率变动,要归因于资产配置,我想这是罗格·伊博森的文章里面,被人引用得最多的结论

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • So 90% of your portfolio is in domestic marketable securities and only 10% is invested in things like real estate or venture capital or private equity -hardly enough to make a difference in terms of the portfolios returns.

    于是90%的投资都在本国有价证券中,仅10%用于比如不动产,风险资本或私募股权投资,这一小块几乎对投资回报,没有什么作用

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • Compound that 13.4% over ten years and there's just an enormous gap between those mutual fund numbers that are in the prospectus and in the advertisement--the time-weighted returns and the dollar-weighted returns that talk about the actual experience of the investment community.

    按13.4%复利算一下10年期的结果,你会发现在招股说明书和广告里给出的,用来反映投资机构实际业绩水平的,时间加权回报率,和货币加权回报率数字之间,有着巨大的差异

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • You want to spend your time and energy pursuing the most inefficiently priced asset classes because there's an enormous reward for identifying the top quartile venture capitalist and almost no reward for being in the top quartile of the high- quality bond universe.

    你应该投入所有的时间和精力,去追逐最不能有效定价的资产,因为在那里才能通过一流的风投经理人,获得巨额的投资回报,而在债券市场,即使债券优质,经理人一流,回报微乎甚微

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • You get nineteen times your money over eighty-one years, but then if you take into account the inflation consumes a multiple of eleven and you're an institution like Yale that consumes only after inflation returns, putting your money into treasury bills really didn't get you very much.

    1年后你的钱翻了19倍,但是如果考虑通货膨胀,在此期间侵蚀了11倍的收益,而且如果你是像耶鲁这样,减去通货膨胀调整到实际回报后再论支出,那么将钱投资于短期国库券,不会让你赚得多

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

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