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I start $100 as the average price of the stock, what should the average price of the stock be?
我把100美元作为股票的初始平均值，你们觉得这个股价的平均值应该是多少呢？
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If I wanted every stock to have the same volatility, I could just do that, if you will, at the time I wrote my program.
如果我希望每只股票的浮动值都相同，在我编写程序的时候，如果你愿意的话，我会这么做。
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Then you might--well let me ask you this, what would happen if Google decided to buy up all of its shares?
你也可能,我来问问你,如果谷歌决定购回它所有的股票会怎么样呢
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I won't be able to show you what a market does unless I have stocks, but I can look at what an individual stock does without having a market.
我不会在没有股票的时候,就给你讲股市应该是怎么样的，但是我可以在没有股市的情况下,先去看单独的股票。
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But if I would confine myself just to stocks and bonds, then I would get a much higher standard deviation.
但若组合里只有股票和债券，我的标准差会高得多。
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After all, I'm going to try and build a simulation of the stock market, so I might as well have the notion of a market, and probably the notion of a stock.
不管怎样,我得建立一个股票市场的仿真程序，所以我最好要有股票的概念，和股市的概念。
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I also have up on the website some questions that I asked investors about what they think about picking stocks.
我在网站上也上传了一些思考题,是我曾经问过一些投资者的问题,他们怎样挑选股票
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Because the first time I wrote the program, I didn't have anything like that here and a stock could go to and then recover.
因为我第一次写这个程序的时候，我什么也没有,一只股票可以等于0然后再恢复。
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They may fluctuate wildly, but if I look at enough stocks, the average should be right around 100.
他们可能会有很大的改变，但是如果我看过足够多的股票，平均值还是应该在100左右。
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So in fact, it is the case, if you look at data, and by the way, that's the way I ended up setting a lot of these parameters and playing with it, was comparing what my simulation said to historical stock data.
所以实际上，在这个例子中，如果你看到数据，顺便说一下，这就是我设置很多变量,然后编程的方式，也就是把我的仿真程序得到的结果,和历史股票数据进行比较。
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Because I'm sort of curious as to, again, which is the right way to think about this, And then, I'm going to just call it.
因为我很好奇，正确模拟股票的应该是哪种分布，然后我会调用它。
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I said that no stock is likely to outperform the market or underperform the market.
我对你们说没有股票,会有比市场表现的好,或者差的可能性。
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I computed the average return on stocks over that time period and I computed the average return on bonds over that time period.
我计算了那个时间段的股票平均收益率,和债券平均收益率。
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In my diagram, I said that the tangency portfolio-- I estimated that the tangency portfolio is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
在我的曲线图里我有提到切线资产组合-,我估算出切线资产组合是9%的石油，27%的股票和64%的债券。
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I talked about a company as having only shares outstanding, but they also have debt outstanding.
我曾提过只发行股票的公司,他们还会有负债
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I can try other portfolios; this one right here--I'm pointing to a point on the pink line-- that point right there, 50% stocks, 50% bonds.
还可以尝试其它组合;,这一点，粉色曲线上我指的这一点-,表示50%的股票，50%的债券。
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Suppose Larry Paige calls up and says, I'd like to buy all of the Google shares, and the broker says, alright I'll get them for you.
假设拉里·佩奇打电话说,我想买下谷歌全部的股票,经纪人说好,我会帮你搞定
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So, what it means then is that the optimal portfolio should not be the one I show there, but should be one that's very heavily into stocks.
他所想提出的观点是,最佳投资组合并不是我在这讲的那个，而是把大量资金都投资到股票市场中。
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you wouldn't go to a pure investment bank either and say I want to buy a hundred shares of Ford Motor Company, ? where is your stockbroker?
你不能去一个真正的投行然后说,我想买几百股福特汽车的股票，你的证券公司在哪里？
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If I own one thousand shares in a company, what does that mean?
如果我有一千股该公司的股票,这意味着什么
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.. I started out with the equally-weighted-- I was talking about stocks-- about n stocks that all have the same variance and are all independent of each other.
开始的时候我讲了等权重的-,我开始时讲了股票-,几支拥有相同方差的股票,彼此间相互独立。
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Now, I can set the price of a stock.
现在，我可以决定一个股票的价格了。
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The immediate suspicion that this raised, and I think it's more than a suspicion, is that companies will time announcement of good news until after they issue the options.
这引起了一些人的猜疑,我想不止是猜疑,公司会在发行股票期权之后,算计发布利好消息的时间
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I want to talk about the stock market today and I thought I would keep it more or less basic because I think-- I want to emphasize basic concepts.
今天我想讲一些股票市场的内容,我想多讲些基础的内容,因为我认为基本概念很重要
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I wish the Fed had behaved better they didn't seem to recognize the bubbles that we had in the stock market in the '90s and the housing in the 2000s.
从某种意义上说，我希望,政府没有发现出来,九十年代的股票市场泡沫,和新世纪房地产的泡沫。
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I want to put down on this axis the return on the stock market and on this axis I want to put the return on one company, let's say Microsoft.
我把这个轴作为股票市场的收益,这个轴作为某个公司的收益,比如说微软
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I mean, you could say, well that means the options are really working well because it really motivated the managers and they did something and made the company worth more.
我的意思是,你可以说,这是因为股票期权激励机制起作用了,因为它的确激励了经理们,这些经理为之付出努力并使公司市值更高
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The thing that comes to my mind is that-- I want to say before concluding this review of the last lecture-- that is that the stock market is inherently political in any country.
浮现在我脑海中的一件事是,在回顾环节结束之前,我想谈谈这个,那就是在任一国家的股票市场上,都会被固有的政治因素所影响
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So, for example, at an annual expected return of 12% if I have a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and oil I can get a standard deviation of something like 8% on my portfolio.
例如，在年预期收益12%的情况下%,我有股票，债券和石油的投资组合,在这个组合里,我的投资组合可以取到8%的标准差。
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