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I don't believe that markets are efficient and it doesn't really seem like it should be an open question.
我不相信市场是有效的,而且事实上这似乎,也不应该是一个开放式的问题。
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After all, I'm going to try and build a simulation of the stock market, so I might as well have the notion of a market, and probably the notion of a stock.
不管怎样,我得建立一个股票市场的仿真程序，所以我最好要有股票的概念，和股市的概念。
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So you say, how can I make money beating the market if every quarter I have to tell everybody what I'm doing?
因此你会说,如果我按季度公布所有的投资活动,那我还怎么跑赢市场赚取利润
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But even an ideal like self-reliance I can remake my world, I can be anything I want is changed by the Market Revolution.
甚至是理想主义的自主,我能改造我的世界,我能成就任何事,这种观念也被市场革命改变了
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I remember when interest rate swap accounting was done on a different market security basis.
我记得利率会换记账法,在不同的证券市场施行时。
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However, then I'll have the whole market, it's as if I'm a monopolist but suddenly I'm pricing above the monopoly price, that can't be right.
但是,占有整个市场,相当于我是个垄断企业,但是我的价格却高于垄断价格,那是不正确的
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One's from Burger King and one is from KFC, and when I show these to you-- we'll talk a lot about food marketing in the United States, because if you buy the premise that I laid out a few moments ago, that what we consider food and what we consider to taste good is pretty much a total social construction.
一个是汉堡王的,一个是肯德基的,在我播放这两个广告的同时,我们要讲下美国的食物市场营销策略,因为如果你买了我之前出的那本提纲,其中讲到了我们对待食物的态度,我们,判定食物好吃与否的标准是种社会意识
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I think market timing,as I've defined it, has to do with short-term deviations from your long-term policy targets.
正如我之前定义的,市场时机选择,是偏离长期策略目标的,短期操作
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I said that no stock is likely to outperform the market or underperform the market.
我对你们说没有股票,会有比市场表现的好,或者差的可能性。
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I mean, lately they've been more inefficient, in my view, because the Fed's creating too much money.
我是说，最近市场表现的更没效率，在我看来，这是因为美联储发行了太多的货币。
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But this Market Revolution is not reported in that newspaper, I would venture.
但是那份报纸上没有这次市场革命的内容,我打赌
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I've been working with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to create a futures market for single-family homes, which is sort of my connection to the futures industry.
我一直以来和芝加哥商业交易所合作,创建一个适合单一家庭的期货市场,这是我参与期货行业的一种方式
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But, they're what we have and I think that we should probably give them the authority to do that job and I think that's what we need to do.
但是，我们能依靠的只有政府了,我想我们也许应该赋予他们,调节市场的权利,这也是我们所需要做的。
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I don't want to make losses, so I just "get out of the market," and the way I "get out of the market," is by pricing above the other guy.
我不想承担亏损,所以我就退出市场,而我退出市场的方法,就是定价比它高
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Meanwhile, I want to talk today about regulation.
今天,我要讲的是市场监管
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All right, so if the other guy is pricing above costs, I want to set prices below his so that I steal the whole of the market and make profits on those sales.
正确,如果对手定价比成本高,我就想定价比他的价格低,这样我就可以占领整个市场,并获得销售利润
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So we've got the firms, they're the players, I know what their strategies are, I know a little bit about the structure of the market, and I still need to tell you what payoffs are.
我们有了公司,作为参与人,我知道它们的策略是什么,对市场的结构也有一些了解,我还需要告诉你们收益是什么
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If you look at John Geanakoplos's course on Financial Theory, his mathematical concepts are central to his outline of the course; but this being a Financial Markets course, I'm dividing it up more in terms of markets and institutions.
如果你们听约翰·吉纳科普洛斯的,金融理论课,他的大纲中心部分,是金融学中的数学概念,而我们这是金融市场课,于是我从金融市场和,金融机构的角度来划分这一课
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Part of the reason why I'm endorsing this market stability regulator is that there's no way we can set up a system that is both very effective in allocating resources and that is also very stable.
我赞成市场稳定性监控者,的部分原因是,没有方法建立一个,既能完全有效配置资源有非常稳定,的系统。
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The thing I stressed in my column was the market stability regulator, which is the Fed.
我在我专栏中强调的是,市场稳定性调控者，也就是联邦政府。
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I don't think they are efficient and this is an example -a Redleaf example.
我不认为市场是有效的,这儿有一个现成的例子,莱德利夫的例子
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Really good poker players play close to their best all the time and they're not really bothered when they lose; I think that's true in markets too.
真正好的玩家,会一直努力玩的更好,但是如果输了，他们也不会真的在意；,我想这种理论在市场中也是适用的。
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So, what it means then is that the optimal portfolio should not be the one I show there, but should be one that's very heavily into stocks.
他所想提出的观点是,最佳投资组合并不是我在这讲的那个，而是把大量资金都投资到股票市场中。
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I want to talk about the stock market today and I thought I would keep it more or less basic because I think-- I want to emphasize basic concepts.
今天我想讲一些股票市场的内容,我想多讲些基础的内容,因为我认为基本概念很重要
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We'll look at things--sectors say they're cheap or expensive and exploit the opportunity; but at least in terms of how I define market timing, it wouldn't be included in that definition.
关注研究资产和行业的细节,看它们是便宜了还是贵了,来发掘投资的机会,但至少在我所定义的市场时机选择方面,并不包括这些
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I wish the Fed had behaved better they didn't seem to recognize the bubbles that we had in the stock market in the '90s and the housing in the 2000s.
从某种意义上说，我希望,政府没有发现出来,九十年代的股票市场泡沫,和新世纪房地产的泡沫。
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There's maybe about three trillion dollars worth of stuff backed by mortgages out there Well, as you've seen, these have produced crisis of confidence and I don't think we've heard the last of it.
现在大概有价值三万亿美元的有抵押证券,在市场上流通,就像你所看到的那样，这些证券已经导致了,市场信心的丧失，而且我个人认为这还完全没有结束。
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If we had perfect financial markets-- and this is intuitive-- and I don't know how obvious this is, it's obvious to me, but it's an intuitive point of great importance-- nobody would suffer alone.
如果我们有完善的金融市场-,这就很直观-,我不知道这有多直观，至少我觉得显而易见，这是一个很重要的观点-,也就是，没有人会独自承担风险。
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The thing that comes to my mind is that-- I want to say before concluding this review of the last lecture-- that is that the stock market is inherently political in any country.
浮现在我脑海中的一件事是,在回顾环节结束之前,我想谈谈这个,那就是在任一国家的股票市场上,都会被固有的政治因素所影响
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If I came to the office next week and decided domestic stocks were too high -I want to move that target down to 8% -in the way that I've described market timing, that would be a market timing move and we're very careful not to do that.
如果下周我上班时,认为国内股票价格偏高,我会把权重调低到8%,用我描述过的方式,这就是个市场时机选择的操作,我们一般很谨慎,并不会轻易那么做
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