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And what I am going to do today is go in some detail through the Bohr model, so let's do that.
今天我想具体介绍一下波尔的原子模型,那我们现在就开始吧。
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So I've been trying to read macroeconomic models that the fed uses to predict and
所以我试着研读美联储用来预测的宏观经济模型和……
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What I am going to do is use these postulates and go through the basis for the Bohr model.
接下来我要利用这个假设,检查波尔模型的根据。
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If you accept my estimates and you accept the capital asset pricing model, that would have to be true.
如果你同意我的估算,而且认同资本资本资产定价模型，那这种投资组合就会带来最大收益。
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The right conclusion, I think, is: the reason we write down these models is to try and capture and test our intuitions.
我觉得合理的结论应该是,我们建立模型的目的,是为了更好地描述事实激发灵感
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The idea being if I find a pattern across multiple people's computers maybe all of those people are infected with the same kind of malware or virus or worm.
如果我从不同人的计算机中发现了一个模型,这就说明,所有那些人的计算机都感染了相同的,恶意软件，病毒或蠕虫。
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Star Festival is a model by which you tell your own personal history. Who am I? This is who I am, and I want you to look at it.
七夕“是一个你讲述个人历史的模型,我是谁？，这就是我，我想与你分享一下。
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I'm looking for the simplest model possible for the first time I run it.
我要找一个简单的模型,然后我们再看看。
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I picked for it two dimensions as the standard way to explain it.
我选取二维的情形作为标准模型来讨论
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Well, so far we've had two models that have been thrown out to you: From polytheism's worship of many gods there's a natural evolution to henotheism's elevation of one god to a supreme position.
目前，我已经给你们提出了两种模型：,从崇拜众多神灵的多神论,自然进化到一神论,唯一的至高无上的神。
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This is by the famous biologist, D'Arcy Thompson, who wrote the book On Growth and Form, and it's sort of the model of many developmental psychologists and many evolutionary psychologists so I'll end with this: "Everything is the way it is because it got that way."
这是著名的生物学家,达西·汤普森所提出的,他写了一本叫做《论生长和形态》的书,这句话也是许多发展心理学家,和进化心理学的理论模型,所以我用这句话来作为结束,"万物如此,皆因其本"
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But before I leave this, let me just point out that this is a little bit more general than it might appear.
在我讲别的之前,我需要指出,这模型比它看起来更具有普遍性
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If you are trying to model, I don't know, the efficacy of a particular drug, these are the baby-steps that you will go through.
是否你正在试图创建模型，我不知道，一种特殊药品的功效，你们要经过一些入门步骤。
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Models aren't popular articles, especially the more complex models I have.
模型不流行了，特别是我的这些复杂模型。
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So what I want you to start thinking about is: do you believe this model?
我想让你们应该考虑下,你相信这个模型吗
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Let's do one more because I am having a ball.
我们再来看一个,因为我已经对这样的模型上瘾了。
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The first problem set asked you to manipulate the model that I just presented-- the model of how you form portfolios and the model of the capital asset pricing model.
第一道习题,考察的是你们能否活用我刚刚给出的几个模型-,包括怎样构成投资组合的模型,和资本资产定价模型。
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So the sort of religious part of today's class is models are always abstractions.
今天这一讲我要说明的是,模型总是抽象的
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The model solutions will be posted, as I told you.
模型的结决办法，已经贴出来了，我已经告诉你们了。
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I can model this whole thing as point charges.
我能把这一切设计成一个点电荷模型。
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And, he says, give me a model for this.
然后他又说，给我一个解释这些数据的模型。
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We'll come back and discuss it more in a second, but before I do, let me mention that the same model, exactly the same idea, has an application in Economics.
我们一会再深入导论这个问题,在此之前,我再来列举一个模型,是经济学里面一个完全类似的模型
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Jeremy Siegel, in his book, which is assigned for this course, is really emphasizing this capital asset pricing model, emphasizing the kind of efficient portfolio frontier calculations that I've done.
杰里米·西格尔的著作，是本课的指定书目，书中着重讲述了资本资产定价模型，以及有效边界等的计算方法,这部分我已经讲完了。
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And so very often I would find myself with gigabytes worth of data, at night I needed to analyze this data and look for this patterns and frankly the reality was sometimes I could spend 10-15 minutes whipping up a little script, a little program that unfortunately would take eight hours or more to run.
我经常会发现十亿字节的数据,晚上我就需要分析这些数据并,找出模型，坦白说，有时,我会花10-15分钟来编写一个小脚本，一个小程序,但不幸的是，运行它可能需要8个小时或更多时间。
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But I want to go back there because what I want to do now is, I want to change some critical assumptions of that model and see that by making those changes, we're going to get some very different outcomes.
但我回来的原因是,我想改变一些模型的关键假设,并看看通过这些改变,我们将得到何种不同的结果
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The evolutionary model is, I think, responding to, and picking up on, the fact that in many respects, Yahweh resembles the gods of Israel's neighbors.
进化模型，我认为，回应了或者说挑选了这个事实，在很多方面，耶和华与以色列邻国的神灵相似。
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I am talking at the level of this is Dalton's model, but then there is a meta knowledge here of how you develop models in general.
我一是在谈论道尔顿的模型，但是，还有些知识,关于你如何建立大概的模型。
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There has to be the mathematical model, which I just presented, but it may be more complicated.
还必须有我之前讲的数学模型,但实际模型可能更复杂
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But actually, we could consider this model more generally, and let's just do so briefly here.
而实际上,我们可以把这个模型想得更普遍些,我简单在这讲一下
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And so part of my research was to analyze these logs and find patterns.
我研究的部分工作就是,分析这些日志并找出模型。
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