I would be able to predict their size, because how far they moved depended on how big they were.
我还应当能估计它的大小,因为它能跑多远取决于它的大小
I guess the other two themes I want to discuss, and not in great detail, but--are the wars.
我估计我想讨论的其他两个主题,不会抠的太细,是战争
It was my first trip outside the United States and really helped me understand my identity as an American was probably the most significant aspect of my identity.
是我第一次离开美国,它使我明白了,“我是一个美国人“,估计是我,身份中最重要的因素了。
Some people might disagree with that, they might not take my estimates.
有人也许会不同意我的观点,他们可能不采取我的估计值。
I think the proper estimate is closer to 80,000 or 100,000.
我认为正确的估计约为八万到十万个
So without giving away my age too much-- I guess it will actually--when I was a kid growing up in England, there was this guy - there was a pop star-- a slightly post-punk pop star called Joe Jackson, who none of you would have heard of, because you were all about ten years old, my fault.
虽然我不想透露我的年龄,但也没办法,我从小在英格兰长大,当时有一个流行歌手,他叫乔?杰克森,后朋克歌手,我估计你们都没听说,因为他红的时候你们才十多岁
If you agree with my estimates, then you should do this as an investor, you should hold only some mixture of this tangency portfolio, which is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
如果你赞同我的估计值,那么作为一个投资者的话你应该这么做,你应该只持有,符合这个切线投资组合比例的投资,即9%的石油,27%的股票,和64%的债券。
I don't find that my analysis is profound in the final answer, I just took some estimates using my data and, again, we could-- if someone wanted to argue with us they could argue with my estimates of the expected returns of the standard deviations and the covariances, but not with this theory.
我在计算过程中并没有做太深入的分析,我只是用我的数据做了一下大概的估计,我再说一次,我们可以-,如果有人想就这个问题与我们争辩,他们可以争论我对期望收益的估计,或是争论标准差和协方差的估计值,但并不会针对理论本身。
They divide by n-1 to make it an unbiased estimator of the population variance, but I'm just going to show it in a simple way here.
当除以n-1表示的是对总体的,无偏估计,我在这里只是说的简单一点
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