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The oil futures market is very significant because it represents the price of energy on dates into the future.
石油期货市场对我们来说意义重大,因为它代表,未来的能源价格
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Yeah. Meatpacking District, for me, the idea of meatpacking was like a meat market.
是的。肉品市场区，对我来说，肉品加工就像一个肉类市场。
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And at the end of the day the ultimate test is whether you're able to get done what you want to get done, or what you think the market demands from you.
每天最后的测试是看你是否,能够做成自己想做的，或者你认为市场会对你要求什么。
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So you feel that you know pretty well how things behave, but then, all of a sudden, there's something way out here.
然后你觉得对市场行为了解的差不多了,但是突如其来,有些东西在这里出现了
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in my description of what it meant to have the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
之前我描述有效率市场假说的时候,对你们说了些假话。
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Consent matters not only for governments, but also for markets.
同意不只对政府很重要，对市场也是。
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We like certain foods, we have positive associations with them because of our families and all these-- and marketing of course, and all these factors come into play in shaping how we feel about food.
我们喜欢某些食物,对它们会产生正面联想,因为,我们的家庭,当然还有市场营销,以及所有的这些因素都影响着,我们对食物的感觉
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So you're going to figure out what happens in this story very generally, well not very generally, but in the particular case actually on the homework assignment, but I want you to understand that there's this much more general story underlying this, and this is a pretty good model of a lot of markets.
所以你们将找出,这样的例子里通常会发生了什么,也说不上太通常,只是在特定情况下,这个家庭作业中,但我想让你们明白,在这例子具有普遍性,且这对很多市场来说都是很好的模型
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I'm going to talk about one futures market that I have been instrumental in developing.
我会讲一个我研究的,对发展发挥了很大作用期货市场
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The general market assumes--and also the government still regulates them.
市场普遍认为...同时,政府也对他们进行监管
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Basically, what it did was it made it feel that people wouldn't get cheated; the SEC was a strong regulator and it really did restore confidence in the financial markets in this country.
证券交易委员会的辛勤付出,使人们感到不会受骗,证券交易委员会是一个强大的监管机构,它也重塑了,这个国家对金融市场的信心
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Then I want to talk in the next lecture about regulation, which means government oversight of financial markets and not just government oversight, there are also the so-called self-regulatory organizations that are created in the financial industry to self regulate.
接下来的一课,会讲到金融监管,政府对金融市场的监管,不仅仅如此,还有金融界为了,监督自身而创设的,我们称为,自我监管的组织
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So, it's not surprising that asset allocation explains more than 100% of returns and that, for the community as a whole, market timing and security selection are costly and lower the community's aggregate investment returns.
因此资产配置能解释100%以上的回报,也不足为奇了,对投资者整体来说,市场时机选择,和证券选择是有代价的,降低了总的投资回报
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Governments establish regulators who set down rules for participants in financial markets and these rules may be perceived as onerous and costly to people in the financial community, but ultimately it's their salvation and it's what makes everything possible.
政府设立监管机构,监管机构为金融市场的参与者,制定法规条令,这些规则对金融界,有着极其严格的约束,但这些规则最终使得金融界运作良好,免遭灭顶之灾
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The second question was about China and there was a special report in the recent Economist talking about the ravenous appetite that China has for natural resources right now. I was curious what you ? thought the effect that would have on global financial ? markets and your investing strategy?
第二个问题是有关于中国的,在最近的《经济学人》杂志上有一篇特别报道,该报道是关于现在中国对自然资源的极度渴望,我非常想知道您个人认为,他们这种情况对全球金融市场会有什么影响呢,对您的投资策略又有什么影响呢？
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The problem, of course, with the democratization of finance is that if you raise the participation in financial markets, then you bring in people who are: less and less knowledgeable; less and less understanding of concepts of finance; and less capable and more vulnerable to exploitation.
问题在于,随着金融的民主化,越来越多的人参与到金融市场里来,有些人,受教育程度较低,对金融概念不了解,没有专业能力且容易被人利用
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So there's a panic in the market for securitized mortgages - and the price is often very low or if it's they're very hard to market and hard to sell.
所以，在市场上,证券化按揭贷款引起了恐慌,并且价格通常很低或者说如果它,他们很那出售而且对市场不利。
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We had an extraordinarily high price-to-earnings ratio representing a lot of optimism in the '20s for the stock market and then it corrected and went abruptly downward-- that was The Great Depression.
在二十年代,市盈率高得离奇,表现了当时人们对股票市场的乐观,当其得到修正并突然下跌时,大萧条便开始了
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Just at the point of maximum opportunity people were at the point of maximum bearishness about the equity markets.
就在最好的投资机会来临的时候,人们对股票市场看空的程度,却刚好达到顶峰
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Relative to the whole market, It's well known that over periods of multiple decades the market has a tendency to go up.
是和整个市场相关的对吗，我们都知道经过几十年的时间周期,市场会有上涨的倾向。
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So we've got the firms, they're the players, I know what their strategies are, I know a little bit about the structure of the market, and I still need to tell you what payoffs are.
我们有了公司,作为参与人,我知道它们的策略是什么,对市场的结构也有一些了解,我还需要告诉你们收益是什么
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And so there's an upward bias to the stock market, contrary to what you may have seen recently.
所以对股票市场来说是有一种上涨的倾向，这和你们最近看到的情况相反。
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I said that no stock is likely to outperform the market or underperform the market.
我对你们说没有股票,会有比市场表现的好,或者差的可能性。
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This behavior recently, I think, confirms that we are living in a very unusual time in the housing market and it's going to put a lot of stress on us.
我认为,这种表现验证了,我们正处于房地产市场的特殊时代,而且这将对我们产生很大压力
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Certain kinds of financial markets called "Prediction markets," which may, for example, predict the outcome of an election have been seen to be very accurate predictors, often better than pollsters can manage.
人们称这种金融市场为,"可预测的市场",举个例子来说,市场对某次大选结果的反应,比民调专家,还要更加准确
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That's a pretty big hit on the stock market.
这对股票市场来说是相当大的冲击
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Human psychology drives markets a great deal.
人们的心理对市场有着很大的影响
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