• That says that if you have independent probabilities, then the probability of two events is equal to the product of their probabilities.

    意思是,几个相互独立的事件,其中两个事件同时发生的概率,等于他们分别发生的概率的乘积

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • It uses the binomial distribution to calculate the probability of getting any specific number of accidents.

    保险公司就可以用二项分布公式,来计算特定数目事故发生的概率

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • The idea is that probability measures the likelihood of some outcome.

    概率是用来描述,某一结果发生的可能性

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • In order to understand probability, you have to take things as coming from a random event and people don't clearly have that in their mind from an intuitive standpoint.

    为了理解概率,你要把事件想象成是随机发生的,但人们没有那样,清晰直观的认识

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • This is a significantly high probability of accidents.

    这个事故发生的概率是很高的

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • The idea really took root--the idea, the intuitive idea is that as you write a large number of policies, the fraction that will result in accidents becomes closer and closer to the probability of one accident.

    这种观点建立在...,观点是,只要你签的保单足够多,事故占保单总数的比例就会越来越接近,事故发生的概率

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • I have the case where p = .2, so the probability of an accident is 20%.

    假设这里的p等于0.2,也就是一次事故发生的概率为20%

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

  • This will generalize to probability of A and B and C equals the probability of A times the probability of B times the probability of C and so on.

    简单的说,A和B和C同时发生的概率,等于A发生的概率乘以B发生的概率,乘以C发生的概率,以此类推

    耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

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