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Right, if nobody stands, each and every possible candidate would do better individually, so any particular voter would do better standing.
没错,如果没人参选,每个可能的候选人单独都能做得更好,任一个特定选民都能通过参选而做得更好
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When they have strong recommendations in 1989 you're willing to hire everybody, and this is not a difference at all.
在1989年，当候选人的推荐信一样好时9,你雇用谁的几率都是一样的，他们的雇用率是几乎没有差别的。
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Here's a candidate--here's an outcome with two entrants in it, an extreme right-wing guy and an extreme left-wing guy.
这是个候选人,有两个加入者,一个极端左派的人和一个极端右派的人
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I think this is President Obama's understanding, also at least as far as I understand from the speeches that he gave when he was a candidate is that we understand the importance of maintaining the integrity of faith communities, they could hire who they want to hire using the wrong resources.
我认为这是总统奥巴马的理解，也至少是我目前,从他作为候选人时所做的演讲中理解的,是我们理解,保持信仰团体完整的重要性，他们可以雇佣任何想要雇佣的人,利用错误的资源。
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But we could, for example, look at a case where we have several different structures that look pretty good, and the one we want to determine as being the lowest energy structure is the one in which the absolute values of the formal charges are going to be lower, so essentially that they have less charge separation.
但是我们可能，比如，遇到一种情况,有好几个候选的路易斯结构看起来都挺好的，这时候我们就需要,通过比较哪个形式电荷的绝对值更低,来决定哪个结构的能量更低，本质上这个结构中分开的电荷更少。
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That's why all these arguments that we all get into these days about third-party political candidates what do we really need in our political culture, what would break apart the stagnation of our two-party system, if that's what people want or put more directly, will Michael Bloomberg run or not?
这就是我们今天为何面对这些争论,关于第三方党派的候选人,也就是我们的政治文化中究竟需要什么,什么能打破我们两党制停滞不前的现状呢,如果这是人民所愿,或者更直接的说,迈克尔.布隆伯格的做法行得通吗
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And you're listening to interviews with possible contestants from Yale " who are going to be on "College Bowl."
你们听着采访录音带,被采访者是耶鲁的参赛候选人,代表耶鲁参加“学院杯“
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After all that looks a lot like the Downs-Hoteling model, we've got two candidates exactly at the middle, is that an equilibrium?
毕竟那看起来很像当斯-霍特林模型,我们有两个绝对在中间的候选人,那是个均衡吗
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A candidate could say during an election that "I'm a moderate candidate, I'm at position 5" but you might not believe him or her.
一个候选人在整个大选中可能说,我是个中立的候选人,我的立场是5,但你不一定就相信他/她的说法
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If there's a tie, half the voters at that position go for one of the candidates and half of them go for the other.
如果是平均,一半的选票划给其中一个候选人,另一半给另一个候选人
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This is our left wing candidate, this is our moderate left wing candidate whose name is?
这是左派候选人,这是我们温和的左派候选人,名字是
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So in politics, this is about candidates crowding close together towards the center, to try and get as many voters who are close to them.
在政治学中,这是关于候选人集中趋向中间立场,从而拉拢更多立场相近的选民的理论
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So it can't be an equilibrium, the exact prediction of the Downs model, two guys right on top of each other is not an equilibrium.
所以它不可能是一个均衡,确切的当斯模型的预测,两个一样的候选人不是一个均衡
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The prediction here is that the candidates are going to be squeezed towards the middle.
预测最终结果是,候选人会被挤到中间立场
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0%: the person at 2 is going to get all the ones at 1, and all the ones at 2; and 3 will get everything else.
0%的选票,选立场2的人会得到,立场1和2的全部选票,选立场3的候选人会得到剩下的选票
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Our kind of centrist candidate, maybe even this centrist candidate who's name is?
我们中间派的候选人,这位中间派候选人,名字是
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Now here we ended up with two centrist candidates, which is a result pretty close to what we saw in the Hoteling model, Is this an equilibrium?
现在我们最终有2个中间派候选人参选,这与我们,在霍特林模型中看到的非常相似,这是一个均衡吗
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In this case, the intuition about crowding towards the center to get votes.
这个案例告诉我们的是,候选人都挤到中间立场以拉拢更多选票
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We're going to assume that voters will eventually vote for the closest candidate.
我们假设,选民会投票给离他们最近的候选人
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So another issue here is, I just assumed that there were two candidates.
另一个问题是,我假设只有有两个候选人
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So the idea of the model is each voter is a potential candidate.
这个模型中每个选民是一个潜在候选人
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So there is an equilibrium with exactly one candidate, the center candidate.
所以在仅有一个候选人时存在一个均衡,中间的候选人
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Extrapolating from the fact that there are different things which people take into account, not everyone closest to 6 might actually vote for 6, it might be coincidence.
考虑到人们关注的东西都不一样,这个实际情况,每个最靠近立场6的人,未必把票都投给选择立场6的候选人了,这可能只是巧合
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But as you all know, those candidates almost all have track records, and not everybody believes that Clinton, that Hilary Clinton, is quite so centrist as she now seems.
但你们也会发现,几乎所有候选人都有政绩可寻,并不是所有人都相信希拉里?克林顿,像她自己说得那样,是个中立派
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We're just saying we want What we're saying is, we know that the candidates aren't going to position themselves at 1 and aren't going to position themselves at 10.
我们只是想,我们要说的是,我们知道候选人,不会选择立场1,同样也不会选择立场10
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The candidates here are going to try and choose positions.
这两个候选人需要选择自己的政治立场
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Voters tend to know that those candidates have track records.
选民知道那些候选人的记录
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So the idea is, any candidate who stands in this election, you know who that candidate is, you know whether they're right wing or left wing, so they can't tell you they're something else.
意思是,选举中的任何候选人,你知道他们是谁,你知道他们是左派还是右派,所以他们不能说他们在别的立场上
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What about the one about many candidates?
那么多个候选人的约束条件呢
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So we have many candidates, So we have many candidates, more than just two; or we have not voting, which is related to that actually; and we have choosing your position, the inability to commit to a position.
有多位候选人,实际情况下候选人不只有两个,存在弃权票,这也是很正常的,还有就是候选人,未必能够坚守他的立场
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