-
An insurance company has reserves and it has enough reserves to cover them for a certain number of accidents.
保险公司一般都有准备金,准备金的数量一般保持在,刚刚够赔偿一定数量的保单
-
You could buy a policy that protected you against your family not having the money to bury you if you died.
你可以买份保单,能使你避免,因家庭贫困而无钱供你死后下葬
-
Moreover, beyond that, how does one know, in taking out an insurance policy, that the insurance company is going to be sound?
除此之外，在人们购买保险时，该如何得知保险公司，会严格按照保单言而守信呢？
-
It turns out that if you make them forfeit their cash value on canceling, then they won't cancel.
但是如果你规定保单的现金价值,会随保单的取消而消失,他们就不会这么干了
-
That is, the insurance policy doesn't just insure you against death, it also builds value over the years.
也就是说,保单不仅仅,补偿死亡带来的损失,它们还会逐年增值
-
What he invented was an insurance policy that had a cash value and that's another-- it's a cash value on the insurance policy.
他创造了一种保单,这种保单具有现金价值,指带有储蓄性质的保单所具有的价值
-
That motivated insurance salesmen to form long-term relationships with the families that he was insuring and to keep them from canceling their policies.
这种机制促使保险推销员与客户,建立起长期合作关系,以防止客户取消保单
-
An insurance policy--the concept is very simple, we could talk about fire insurance or life insurance.
保单的概念其实很简单，我们可以谈谈火灾保险，或者人寿保险。
-
With 100 policies, they can't really count that accurately on having 20% of the policies paid.
对于100份保单来说,不是说事故发生率就是,保单总数的20%
-
Let's talk about life insurance-- and we're talking about kinds of policies that are around today.
不妨先讲述下寿险,我们讨论的是几种常见保单
-
With non-participating--with participating, you are participating in the portfolio outcome that the insurance company is experiencing, so you have some uncertainty about your cash value.
所谓参与式分红保险,是指你的收益来自某个投资组合收益,而这个投资组合是由保险公司来管理的,所以保单的现金价值是不确定的
-
Then of course, there's the other problem that the insurance company-- how does the insurance company reasonably specify that it can come through on this policy?
之后，对保险公司来说,当然还存在其它问题-,保险公司怎样才能使一份保单上,载明的内容合理而有效被执行呢？
-
Number of policies doesn't affect the means but it affects that standard deviation, so it becomes very collapsed and this is the basic core idea of insurance.
保单的数量并不影响其均值,但是会影响其标准差,所以这条曲线非常陡峭,而这就是保险的核心原理
-
Both of these were ideas that were copied all over the world-- that's the way inventions are-- so a lot of insurance policies today have cash values.
以上两个点子后来在全世界被广泛使用,这就是创新,所以现在的很多保单都是有现金价值的
-
So, the insurance company with one hundred policies would have still substantial risk.
所以签了100份保单的保险公司,仍然面临一定的风险
-
It's not easy to devise this and the concept is very simple.
设计保单并不那么容易,仅仅一条概念太单薄了。
-
There's something called "variable life," which refers to a life insurance policy where the policyholder can make decisions about the investment of the money in the whole life policy.
有种保单叫做"可变寿险",作为终身寿险的一种,投保人可以自主选择,在终身寿险上进行多少投资
-
This invention was very important because it stopped people from canceling.
这是一项非常重要的创新,因为它有效地防止了人们取消保单
-
Now, I want to draw-- what if we write 10,000 policies?
现在我来画...,如果签了10000份保单会怎样
-
For example, let's talk about an insurance policy as an invention.
比如保单,这也是种发明。
-
The simplest form of life insurance is called "term insurance."
最简单的寿险保单形式叫做定期人寿保险
-
It depends on the particular policy-- what it includes.
这取决于保单中具体包括了哪些风险
-
If we did a--if we go another two decimals-- if we did a million policies, then we would--this would almost just be a spike here at that point, so that's the concept of insurance.
如果我们在一万后面加两个零,如果我们签了一百万份保单,那么这条曲线基本就是尖形了,这些都是保险的相关概念
-
The idea really took root--the idea, the intuitive idea is that as you write a large number of policies, the fraction that will result in accidents becomes closer and closer to the probability of one accident.
这种观点建立在...,观点是,只要你签的保单足够多,事故占保单总数的比例就会越来越接近,事故发生的概率
-
There are also survivorship policies that will pay, for example, the second to die-- there would be a policy if a husband and wife get it, then it pays out when the second of them dies.
还有一种叫做生死两全保险,它会向身故受益人赔付直至其死亡,若一对夫妻购买这种保单,且其中一方死亡,那么它会给活着的一方赔付直至其死亡
-
In Renaissance Italy they started writing insurance policies-- I read one of the insurance policies, it's in the Journal of Risk and Insurance-- and they translate a Renaissance insurance policy and it's very hard to understand what this policy was saying.
在文艺复兴时期的意大利,人们开始编写保单,我看过其中一份,刊登在《风险和保险杂志》上,他们翻译了一份文艺复兴时期的保单,但是很难理解那份保单到底想说什么
-
They want to make sure that there's a significantly high probability-- sufficiently high probability-- that even if they get a bad draw and there are a lot policies that require paying out, that these reserves will satisfy.
他们想要确保,即使保险公司遇上严重事件,面临大量的保单赔付,他们仍然有充分能力,来应付这种状况,也就是说准备金必须足够多
-
Well, the mean is always .2 no matter how many policies you write, so it's going to be--we're going to have a normal distribution centered on .2.
不论你签了多少份保单,均值永远是0.2,所以这就是一个关于x=0.2对称的,正态分布
-
If you wrote only one policy, what's the probability distribution of x/n?
如果你只签了一份保单,那么x/n的概率分布是怎样的?
应用推荐