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They like to--when they're computing the investment yield, they want to be completely honest and not use any rules of thumb.
当他们计算投资收益率的时候,他们需要完全精确,而非用经验公式
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No, but the pay, the way they value, the way of valuing each-- Okay, so the payoffs may be different.
但是结果,他们关心的东西不同,结果导致收益不同
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They show the expected return on stocks versus bonds or short-term debt for a whole range of countries.
他们对这些国家的股票预期收益与,国债或者短期债券作出比较。
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So the benefits turned out to be only $49.5 million and so they didn't install the device.
收益最后只有4950万,因此他们没有安装该装置。
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So here are their payoffs and once again the basic structure of the game hasn't changed.
这就是他们的收益,这次博弈的基本结构还是不变
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We could have assumed that all they really care about is winning and that winning gave them a high payoff and that losing gave them nothing.
我们假设,他们真的非常想获胜,获胜会带给他们巨大的收益,失败则一无所获
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What they are trying to determine is how wide is the band of outcomes.
他们想,确定收益区间的跨度。
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That is, promise that they will do well-- you see this all the time.
例如他们承诺能够获得高额收益率,你时常能听到这种论调
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But the law--the SEC requires that they at least present the standard earnings definitions for all these things Now another--let me just mention off balance sheet accounting.
不过,证交会规定他们至少要披露,各项收益标准定义,另一个内容,表外业务会计核算
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I actually believe in the history of the planet, there are very, very few instances of people getting paid for taking risk; they get paid for eliminating it.
我一直相信在人类的历史上，有非常少的例子来证明人们,因为承担风险而获得了收益；,他们是因为规避了风险而收益。
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You've got to put yourself in other people's shoes to figure out what they care about and what they're going to try and do, so you can respond well to that.
你要学会换位思考,去分析他们的收益是什么,他们要怎么做,并依此做出回应是很难的
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Also, if the earnings drop, they don't want to suddenly do a crash cut in their dividends either, so they're always sluggishly adjusting toward the target payout rate.
同样,如果收益下降,他们不想匆忙的把股利降下来,所以他们总是慢慢的,朝着目标股利发放率靠近
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Firms that do that are, in practice, however, the minority and most mutual funds have some gimmick or some special-- they claim to be beating the market not forming the optimal portfolio.
然而实际上,这么做的公司很少,大部分共同基金都会耍些花招,或有一些特别的...,他们强调他们的收益率将强于市场平均水平,而非建立最佳投资组合
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That's a complicated thing that accountants figure out and accountants find it difficult to define the earnings of a company, but they do something and they come up with a number.
会计们会计算这个复杂的问题,他们还会发现公司收益很难定义,但是他们会想办法,得出一个数字
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They only capture fifty percent of their marginal benefit.
他们只能得到50%的边际收益
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So that's here, and if I knew they were choosing Right for sure, that's the probability of 1 that they're choosing Right, and if I choose Middle I get 4, that's here.
对应的是这个点,如果说对手肯定选右,即他们选右的概率是1,此时我选中的收益是4,就是这个点
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So, we should use that, but people in finance resist using that because it's a lower number and when you're advertising your return you want to make it look as big as possible.
所以我们应该用这个指标,但金融界反感使用几何平均,因为它比其他平均数都来得小,他们为自己的收益率做广告时,当然希望数字越大越好
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What most people are doing when they go into a mutual fund is they're trying to find smart people who will beat the market-- who will pick those stocks that will do well.
大多数人投资共同基金,实际是在寻找聪明之辈,来帮助他们获取更高收益率...,来挑选表现最为优异的股票
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Probability is 0 of their choosing Right is the same as saying they choose Left, so that my payoff from Up against that is given by the top box up there, I get 5.
如果对手选右的概率是0,其实就是说他们会选左,因此此情况下我选上的收益,从上面的矩阵看,我的收益是5
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They used to pay out typically like 80% of their earnings but it's been gradually going downward and now it's down to like 40%.
过去他们将收益的80%作为股利,但现在正慢慢减少,目前降到了40%
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How do they get the profit?
那么他们怎么获得收益呢
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Earnings are something that accountants have generated and they've been doing it all the way back to 1871-- it's a venerable concept; it's how much money the company made this year, if it's annual earnings.
收益是会计们算出来的,从1871年来一直如此,他们值得尊敬,年收益指的是公司这一年赚到的钱
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If you look at the behavior of groups of active managers and the dispersion of returns, I think it gives you some idea of what the efficiency is with which assets in these individual assets classes are priced.
如果观察一下主动管理型的基金经理们,和他们的投资收益分布,我想它会告诉你一些信息,哪些资产是有效定价
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I don't find that my analysis is profound in the final answer, I just took some estimates using my data and, again, we could-- if someone wanted to argue with us they could argue with my estimates of the expected returns of the standard deviations and the covariances, but not with this theory.
我在计算过程中并没有做太深入的分析，我只是用我的数据做了一下大概的估计,我再说一次，我们可以-,如果有人想就这个问题与我们争辩,他们可以争论我对期望收益的估计,或是争论标准差和协方差的估计值，但并不会针对理论本身。
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They told him that if earnings go up-- we try to keep a target payout ratio-- but if earnings suddenly shoot up, we're not going to increase our dividends right away because that would set too high an expectation and we don't want to have to cut it.
他们告诉他,如果收益提高,我们会努力维持既定的股利发放率,但如果收益大涨,我们不会马上提高股利,因为这样会导致过高的期望,我们也不想降低股利
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For example, I don't have more space to write, if this is time and this is earnings-- if your earnings were,say, flat and suddenly increased like that, they wouldn't believe this increase at first, so the board would decide to adjust only, say, half way up.
例如,没地方写了,横轴是时间,纵轴是收益,如果你的收益,一直平稳,突然间提高,他们刚开始不敢相信这种增长,董事们决定只小幅增加,如增到一半
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