Underlying it there were other things besides just the calculation of their accident rates that had certain assumptions built in.

但是我们在这些特定假设之下,计算出来的事件概率之外,还有一些事情没有反映出来

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

These are called population measures because they refer to the whole population of possible outcomes and they measure the probabilities.

这些是用来度量总体的变量,因为他们对应的是总体中所有的结果,度量的是所有事件的概率

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

It's about how so many plans in finance are messed up by rare events that suddenly appear out of nowhere.

书中提到金融界中突然出现的小概率事件,怎样搞砸了无数计划

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

That says that if you have independent probabilities, then the probability of two events is equal to the product of their probabilities.

意思是,几个相互独立的事件,其中两个事件同时发生的概率,等于他们分别发生的概率的乘积

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

In order to understand probability, you have to take things as coming from a random event and people don't clearly have that in their mind from an intuitive standpoint.

为了理解概率,你要把事件想象成是随机发生的,但人们没有那样,清晰直观的认识

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

If the probability is zero that means the event can't happen.

如果概率等于0就意味着事件不会发生

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选