Firstly, the thesis tests the existence of U/W cycle in Chinese motor insurance through the analysis of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation and the test of two order autoregression.
首先，利用自相关系数和偏自相关系数图以及二阶自回归模型对机动车辆保险的周期存在性进行定性与定量分析。
The disadvantage of establishing ARMA model with traditional time series analysis is analyzed; a new model building method based on judgment rules and long autoregression is put forward.
分析了传统时间序列分析法建立ARMA模型的不足，提出了一种利用模型阶数判断准则和长自回归法建模的新方法。
The disadvantage of establishing ARMA model with traditional time series analysis is analyzed; a new model building method based on judgment rules and long autoregression is put forward.
分析了传统时间序列分析法建立ARMA模型的不足，提出了一种利用模型阶数判断准则和长自回归法建模的新方法。
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