为何各国的自然失业率不同？
Why might the natural rate of unemployment differ across countries?
自然失业率的本质是什么？
周期性失业：失业率对自然失业率的背离。
Cyclical unemployment is the deviation of unemployment from its natural rate.
自然失业率：失业率围绕它而波动的正常失业率。
Natural rate of unemployment is the normal rate of unemployment around which the unemployment rate fluctuates.
摩根大通估计美国的自然失业率可能已经从4.75%上涨到将近6%。
JPMorgan estimates that America's natural rate of joblessness may have risen from 4.75% to closer to 6%.
改善就业流动，提供职位空缺和劳力供给信息等，都能降低自然失业率。
Improvements in employment exchanges, in availability of information about job vacancies and labor supply, and so on, would tend to lower the natural rate of unemployment.
城镇登记失业率逐年增加，超过了4%的自然失业率，就业形势比较严峻。
Registered unemployment rate in the town is increasing year by year, exceeding 4%, the natural unemployment rate, suggesting a serious situation.
然而美联储认为这是生产率提升而带来的自然失业率的下降，因而对政策没有做任何调整。
But the Fed decided that productivity improvements had driven down the NAIRU and so left policy on hold.
而且这也要求美联储对于它所估计的自然失业率数值有足够的信心——这是在测量众所周知的不稳定的数值。
And it would require the Fed to have a lot of confidence in its estimate of the natural unemployment rate, a notoriously slippery thing to measure.
本文的研究结论对于中国如何提高供需双方的匹配效率从而抑制大量失业与大量空缺岗位并存的现象、降低自然失业率有一定的参考价值。
The conclusion in the paper have some reference value for how to improve the matching efficiency between labor supply and demand and keep down the coexistence of many unemployment and many vacancies.
同时，文章又说，移民会降低“自然”失业率，因为那些移民相对于迟钝的英国人来说，在工作的选择方面要灵活的多。
And it heard evidence that migrants may push down the "natural" rate of unemployment, since they are more flexible than sluggish Britons about which jobs they take.
换句话说，并不存在单一的“自然”失业率，决策者在原则上尽可以定一个他们最喜欢的均衡数字。
In other words, there was no single "natural" rate: policymakers could in principle try for the equilibrium they most favoured.
美联储同样认为，保持长期汇率不变地承诺是有条件的，并不是像许多人认为的那样，一定要是6个月，而是以高失业率和低通货膨胀率(两者皆实际存在且已被预期)为前提的，如果有前提改变的话，利率自然也会跟着改变。
It does not mean six months, as many seem to think, but only as long as unemployment remains high and inflation (both actual and expected) stays low. If those things change, so will interest rates.
一旦真相明了，他们要求更高的工资，失业率又会回升到自然比率。
Once the truth dawned and they demanded more pay, unemployment would rise back to its “natural” rate.
联邦决策者们估计美国的“自然”失业率——换句话说就是同稳定的通胀率相平衡的最低失业率应该维持在6%甚至更低(见右侧表格)。
Fed policymakers reckon America's "natural" unemployment rate-that is, the lowest compatible with stable inflation-is at or below 6% (see right-hand chart).
如图你可以看到，失业率将永远不会接近零，徘徊在它的平均自然增长率水平。
As you can see, the unemployment rate will never be near to zero and it also fluctuates around its average natural rate.
为了避免误会，我要强调，所谓“自然”失业率，并不是说它是不可变的。
To avoid misunderstanding, let me emphasize that by using the term "natural" rate of unemployment, I do not mean to suggest that it is immutable and unchangeable.
各地的政客们都自然的担心泡沫化整合，因为这总是意味着较高的失业率和投票者窘迫。
Politicians everywhere are naturally fearful of post-bubble consolidation because it always means higher unemployment and voter distress.
各地的政客们都自然的担心泡沫化整合，因为这总是意味着较高的失业率和投票者窘迫。
Politicians everywhere are naturally fearful of post-bubble consolidation because it always means higher unemployment and voter distress.
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