那么,理性投资者应该怎么办?
三是即使一些非理性投资者具有相同的行为方式,证券市场依然是有效的。
Even if irrational investors' behavior shows no difference, securities market is still efficient.
许多实证结果显示,在此之前被认为是理性投资者的基金也广泛的参与了羊群行为。
Many positive researches demonstrate, the fund, was considered to be rational investors, also widespread participated in herding.
EMH是建立在理性投资者、市场有效和随机游走过程这三个核心前提假定基础上的。
EMH is established on the following three presuppositions: rational investor, efficient market and random walk process.
当存在模型不确定性且有限市场参与内生时,过度自信的投资者和理性投资者参与股票市场的程度有着不同的行为模式。
Limited participation can arise endogenously in the presence of model uncertainty, and overconfident investors enter the market differently from the rational investors.
理论上,当预期实际回报率是下降的或负值时,理性投资者是不会投入的,但实际情形并非如此,市场参与者是风险偏好的和非理性的。
In theory, no rational investor would invest when expected real return on equity is declining and negative but they still do. Market participants are risk seeking and irrational.
理性的投资者选择更多的价值,且比起较多风险更喜欢较少的风险。
A rational investor chooses more value over less, and prefers less risk to more risk.
如果投资者认为所有人都会采取同样做法,这可能是理性的。
This can be rational behaviour if investors think that everyone else will do the same.
然而,紧随信贷危机而来的网络泡沫的破削弱了由理性的投资者掌控的市场概念。
But the bursting of the dotcom bubble followed by the credit crunch have dented the notion of perfect markets governed by rational investors.
金融分析和投资者集体智慧的最热心倡导者如今有了新的认识:市场并不总是理性的。
A new realisation has dawned among the most fervent advocates of financial analysis and collective investor wisdom: markets are not always rational.
但投资者应该摆脱盲目恐慌到理性的恐惧作为危机举措进一步落后于后视镜。
But investors are supposed to move from blind panic to rational fear as a crisis moves further behind in the rearview mirror.
这一次,金价的上涨较为温和——就目前来看,但投资者的不理性似乎更加严重。
This time, the rise in the gold price is more modest - so far - but the irrationality of investors is, if anything, greater.
投资者理性么?
那次辩论的合理延伸(假设大多数投资者是理性的)就是现在出售。
The logical extension of that argument (assuming most investors are rational) is to sell now.
不过,这些投行也知道,投资者正失去理性。
投资者之所以会抛售,而且通常是非理性的进行交易,恐慌是最主要的情感推动因素(昨天,道琼斯指数下跌391点便是最好的例子)。
And fear and panic are the main emotions that drive investor selling, almost always irrationally (see yesterday's 391-point drop in the Dow as an example).
但动量效应暗示却是有一种非理性在市场中运作;投资者买进股票或大宗商品仅仅因为它们的价格涨了。
But the momentum effect suggests that an irrationality might be at work; investors could be buying shares (and commodities) just because they have risen in price.
之后的复苏很大程度上反映了投资者向更理性风险倾向的回归。
Much of the rebound since then reflects a return to more normal risk appetites.
现在人们广泛接受了这种可能,即投资者行为会表现出不理性,造成显著的异常现象。
There is now widespread acceptance that investors can behave irrationally, creating very large anomalies.
一个理性的投资者不会在现在以每盎司1008美元的价格买进黄金的,除非他或她坚信金价会在10年内至少涨到每盎司1500美元左右,在20年内至少涨到每盎司2400美元。
A rational person wouldn't buy an ounce of gold for $1,008 today unless he or she was very confident it would be worth at least $1,500 or so in ten years' time, and at least $2,400 in twenty years.
目前的市场,情绪已经超越了指导投资者买卖的理性思维。
In a market such as this one, the problem is that emotions have taken over, and are now ruling the "thinking" that individual investors are using to guide their buying-and-selling decisions.
华尔街不想要理性的、消息灵通的投资者。
理性的投资者总是希望领先群体一步跳出此类资产。
The rational investor would want to get out of the asset class before the herd decides to do so.
2007年的大牛市,我们目睹了狂热的市场,但却是理性和机构投资者的数目?
The great bull market in 2007, we witnessed the frenzied market, but rational and a number of institutional investors?
“我不是一个出色的语言学家,但我希望自己是个理性的投资者,”波顿轻描淡写地说道。
"I am a terrible linguist but, I hope, a reasonable investor," Mr Bolton says, with understatement.
无论如何,垃圾级的评级可以让那些退休基金及理性的投资者远离危机:这保护了孀妇,孤儿和退休工人。
Among other things, junk ratings warn pension funds and similarly sobersided investors to stay away: they protect widows, orphans and retired factory workers.
无论如何,垃圾级的评级可以让那些退休基金及理性的投资者远离危机:这保护了孀妇,孤儿和退休工人。
Among other things, junk ratings warn pension funds and similarly sobersided investors to stay away: they protect widows, orphans and retired factory workers.
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