结果表明，采用不同模式的初始资料生成得到初值集合成员的方法用于集合预报，对南海热带气旋路径预报有一些明显的改进。
The results show that some obvious improvements can be obtained for the track forecasting by using ensemble members formed by the data of initial fields of the 3 different numerical models.
进一步根据NCEP/NCAR全球再分析逐日高度场的格点资料，以热带气旋为中心，取移动区域上的格点场资料作为热带气旋路径预报的物理量初选因子。
The further are using the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis Data and taking the moves TC as the center, then select some grid of the region about the motion TC as the physical quantity predictors (NWP).
提出一个综合评估环境场影响的热带气旋路径客观相似预报模式。
An objective analogue prediction model of tropical cyclone track is brought forward that considers the synthetical evaluation environment.
2005年汛期热带气旋预报表明，系统对热带气旋的路径和暴雨的预报效果较好。
The tropical cyclone forecast in the flood season in 2005 indicated that the system was suitable to the tropic cyclone route forecast and rainstorm forecast.
试验结果表明：热带气旋定位误差影响路径预报，但扰动初始位置的集合平均预报与控制试验的预报水平相接近。
The results show that TC initial position perturbation make its track different, but ensemble mean is close to control forecast.
试验结果表明：热带气旋定位误差影响路径预报，但扰动初始位置的集合平均预报与控制试验的预报水平相接近。
The results show that TC initial position perturbation make its track different, but ensemble mean is close to control forecast.
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