他指出最优的长期预测工具，周期调整市盈率由于将过去十年间的利润进行了平滑，现在已显著高估了美国股票的价格。
He points out that American equities are significantly overvalued on the best long-term measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio which smooths profits over ten years.
然而，尽管周期调整市盈率从1999年44倍的高位有所下降，它仍有20倍左右，远远高于15倍的历史平均市盈率。
Nevertheless, although the cyclically adjusted ratio has fallen from a heady 44 in 1999, it is still around 20, a level well above the historical average of 15.
用最好的衡量长期收益的工具——周期性调整市盈率——衡量，华尔街金融市场的溢价为21.9倍，高于历史均值大约33%。
On the best long-term measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, Wall Street looks overvalued on a multiple of 21.9, some 33% above the historic average.
美国经济学家罗伯特•希勒(Robert Shiller)提出的调整后的周期性实际市盈率，是建立在企业发布的收益、而非广泛的经济活动基础上的。
The cyclically adjusted real p/e, developed by the US economist Robert Shiller, works on the basis of reported corporate earnings rather than broad economic activity.
对其的估价也还未到甩卖的地步。与之前个位数的熊市相比，现在美国市场周期性调整的市盈率是14.5。
And valuations are not yet at fire-sale levels; the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of the American market is 14.5, compared with previous bear-market lows in single digits.
另外一个(同时也是Shiller先生书里说的一个重点)是周期性调整市盈率，即过去十年内利润和股票数的比值。
The other (which was also an important point in Mr Shiller's book) is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which compares shares with the profits earned over the previous ten years.
另外一个(同时也是Shiller先生书里说的一个重点)是周期性调整市盈率，即过去十年内利润和股票数的比值。
The other (which was also an important point in Mr Shiller's book) is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, which compares shares with the profits earned over the previous ten years.
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