阐述应用非对称结构理论作台风路径预报的技术原理。
The technical fundament of forecasting typhoon tracks applying the asymmetric structure theory is expounded.
风暴潮预报准确率首先决定于台风路径预报的准确率。
Forecasting accuracy of storm surge caused by typhoon depends on forecasting accuracy of typhoon track.
自然正交分解(EOF)在台风路径预报中已得到应用。
Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) has been applied in typhoon track forecasting.
如能了解实际台风的非对称结构，将有助于提高台风路径预报的水平。
This means that the understanding of realistic typhoon asymmetric structure would enhance our ability for forecasting typhoon tracks.
通过台风路径预报对比试验表明：该方法能有效地减少计算误差的引入，具有较好的应用价值。
The tropical cycle track simulation shows that this method can decrease computing error and would have a broad prospect for operational practice.
通过试验对比发现，BDA方案优化的初始场更合理，其台风路径预报效果优于GFDL方案。
Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.
台风的路径和风雨强度预报是台风预报服务的关键。
The forecast of typhoons track, intensity of rainfall and strong gale is very important.
将台风按路径分型，分析了不同路径台风风暴潮的特点，并用基于PRESS准则的逐步回归方法，建立了不同路径风暴潮的预报模型。
The features of typhoon storm surge along different paths are analyzed. Furthermore, the regression method based on PRESS standard is used for surge forecasting.
结果表明，经过BDA方案优化的台风初始场更加接近实际台风的结构，有效地提高了台风路径和强度预报的准确率。
The results show that the optimal initial field produced by BDA scheme is closer to the observations and the forecast accuracy for both track and intensity is improved effectively.
可用于台风路径的数值预报等方面。
It can be used to the numerical forecasting of the typhoon track and other studies.
本文将作者在前文中介绍的非常定自适应网格模式用于台风路径的数值预报。
The time-dependent adaptive mesh model which introduced in the author's previous paper was applied to the numerical forecasting of typhoon track in this paper.
关于台风路径的预报方法很多，但没有一种方法预报的准确性占绝对优势，为此提出了一种集成方法——最优决策法，将几种性能较好的预报方法进行集成。
There are quite a number of methods for the forecast of typhoon track, but none of them takes on absolute load in accuracy. The optimum decision method is used to forecast typhoon track.
关于台风路径的预报方法很多，但没有一种方法预报的准确性占绝对优势，为此提出了一种集成方法——最优决策法，将几种性能较好的预报方法进行集成。
There are quite a number of methods for the forecast of typhoon track, but none of them takes on absolute load in accuracy. The optimum decision method is used to forecast typhoon track.
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