过度乐观可能会助长不良投资模式，导致出现房地产“泡沫”，但这篇报告的作者对这种潜在后果只是一笔带过，认为这种后果尚未发生。
While excessive optimism can promote bad investment patterns, resulting in a real-estate "bubble," the report's writers downplay that potential outcome in that it has not yet occurred.
因此，一个显而易见的问题出现了：我们能不能发现泡沫何时发生，并预测它们何时破裂？
So an obvious question arises: can we spot bubbles when they occur and predict when they are about to burst?
经济下滑的速度和规模留比1990年日本房市泡沫破灭之后发生的一切都要严重。
The speed and scale of the slump leaves behind anything that happened after 1990, when Japan’s bubble burst.
有许多泡沫和崩溃以来，但最有名的发生离家更近。
There have been many bubbles and crashes since, but the most famous happened closer to home.
但金融史中充斥着泡沫和崩盘，也就是说，极端事件(即所谓的“肥尾”)发生的频率要远大于钟形曲线所预计的。
But financial history is littered with bubbles and crashes, demonstrating that extreme events or so-called "fat tails" occur far more often than the bell curve predicts.
当太多美圆在体系里游荡就会造成这样的情况发生；它们都需要一休息的地方，当它们这样做了，它们就制造了资本泡沫。
This is what happens when there's too many dollars sloshing around the system; they all need a place to rest, and when they do, they create equity bubbles.
但自柏林墙倒塌与日本泡沫经济破裂同时发生的那刻起，自民党就时日无多了。
Its days have been numbered since the collapse of the Berlin Wall coincided with the bursting of Japan's bubble economy.
每次发生金融危机，当局就会进行干预，照管出问题的机构，并实施货币及财政刺激政策，从而进一步吹大这个超级泡沫。
Each time a financial crisis occurred the authorities intervened, took care of the failing institutions, and applied monetary and fiscal stimulus, inflating the super-bubble even further.
他并不是高兴的主张住房市场泡沫，而是郁闷的表示，他能看到的、唯一能走出萧条的方式就是这样一个泡沫的发生。
He was not cheerfully advocating a housing bubble, but instead he was glumly saying that the only way he could see to get out of the recession would be for such a bubble to occur.
预算条例和银行监管力度都有所加强，得以避免又一次泡沫发生的风险。
Budgetary rules and bank supervision were strengthened, helping to avert the risk of another bubble.
虽然这说法有些瑕疵，因为利率自1980年开始就一直下降，但繁荣却突如其来，所以我觉得，格林斯潘本应能看到泡沫的发生。
It doesn't match up very well though because interest rates have been going down since 1980 and the boom is very sudden, so it seems to me that Greenspan should have seen this bubble coming.
此次经济危机同发生在发达国家的其他多数危机一样，都是源于房产泡沫以及信贷扩张。
This crisis, like most others in rich countries, emerged from a property bubble and a credit boom.
依然背负着住房泡沫期间发生的债务的消费者是不愿意消费的。
Consumers, still burdened by the debt that they ran up during the housing bubble, aren't ready to spend.
由于在过去20年造成的“人工财富泡沫”终于崩溃了，那么有两种情况就可能发生：资本损毁或购买力损毁。
Now that the "artificial-wealth bubble" of the past two decades is finally collapsing, one of two scenarios can occur: capital destruction or purchasing-power destruction.
不只是房地产和金融这些泡沫产业的薪资削减了5%或更多，制造、零售、批发、运输和信息技术产业也发生了同样的情况。
Payrolls were slashed by five per cent or more not just in the bubble categories of construction and finance but also in manufacturing, retail, wholesale, transportation, and information technology.
虽然他认为灾难性的崩盘并不太可能很快发生，但他指出当时泡沫破裂后MeiMoses指数在之后五年暴跌60%。
Though he does not believe a crash is imminent, he notes that when that bubble burst the Mei Moses index dropped by over 60% in the five following years.
但是这是否就意味着如果房地产热没发生的话，在过去的泡沫市场中购房的房主会获益更多呢？
But does that mean that homeowners in the former bubble markets would have been better off if the housing boom never happened?
但是，这样的情况却并没有在眼下发生：在据称泡沫形成的整个过程中，石油库存几乎都保持在正常的水平。
But it hasn't happened this time: all through the period of the alleged bubble, inventories have remained at more or less normal levels.
过去40年发生多次金融危机之后，大多数理性的人开始接受这一观点：金融市场可以有泡沫。
After so many financial crises in the past 40 years most reasonable people would now accept that bubbles in asset markets can exist.
上个年代里的房地产巨型泡沫现象，不但发生在美国，也发生在欧洲。伴随着这个泡沫的是家庭债务的大幅增加。
The great housing bubble of the last decade, which was both an American and a European phenomenon, was accompanied by a huge rise in household debt.
此星云呈泡沫状，之所以如此，是因为附近一颗恒星发生剧烈爆炸，产生的辐射和恒星风从尘埃云中间穿过，掏空了中间部位。
This nebula is a bubble, and it's a bubble because intense blasts of stellar wind and radiation for a nearby star have cut through the dust and hollowed out the middle.
还记得互联网泡沫破裂后的那几年都发生了什么吧。
Recall what occurred in the years after the dotcom bubble burst.
我们交流的方式已经发生了变化，你的家庭不能活在离开了科技的泡沫里。
"The way we communicate is changing and your family can't live in a bubble and ignore technology, " she says.
我们交流的方式已经发生了变化，你的家庭不能活在离开了科技的泡沫里。
"The way we communicate is changing and your family can't live in a bubble and ignore technology, " she says.
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