Workman came up with probability software that keeps the disk reader near the next likely spot it will access.
Typically, in a variation of the Allais experiment, subjects are asked to consider two different lotteries one with a big probability of winning a small prize and another with a smaller probability of winning a big one.
Price drops or runups that the coin-tossing model sees as impossible--changes with a probability of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth of a millionth--occur frequently.
"We've identified the victim through DNA with a probability approaching one in a billion so we're confident we've identified the victim of that crime, a young woman from the Swindon area, " he said.
Rarely in the capital markets is something with a high probability of happening forecast so clearly.
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Passive investing provides you with the highest probability for reaching your financial goals.
Even the Fed seems to be preparing markets for that probability with its recent statements, and speeches by individual Fed governors.
Consider a patient with a deadly cancer that would cost a million dollars to treat, with a substantial probability of failure nevertheless.
Park has said she won't yet change her policy, which was built with the high probability of provocations from Pyongyang in mind.
The only way the Hartle-Hawking wave function can explain an expanding universe with a reasonable probability is if the many-worlds picture is the right one.
Mario Draghi has already expressed concern over tight credit markets and bank lending rates, and after already having cut rates in his first meeting, markets expect at least a 25bps cut with 70% probability.
The probability of loss obviously declines with multiple sites but the mathematics of that probability are still based on the probability of loss at each individual site.
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Even though markets had been pricing in some easing (a 25bp cut with a 65% probability), the decision to cut by 50bp surprised almost everybody.
Mr Geithner understands better than almost anyone that in crises you throw out the forecast and focus on avoiding low probability events with catastrophic consequences.
We think recent developments are consistent with a low recession probability, say 20% through September 2008 as discussed in "Extra Rate Cut A Big Deal, Not A Band-Aid" on Sept. 19.
That the iPhone 5 might get one third of the iPhone market, or one third of the smart-phone marketplace, or possibly even one third of all phone sales: all seem possible with lowering levels of probability.
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Also, anybody with a basic understanding of probability can prove mistakes are unlikely to even themselves out.
If you meet with 10 companies, the probability some will not meet your standards is very high.
However, even when dealing with a threat of low probability but devastating impact, one is obligated to err on the side of safety.
Some may look for stocks that offer a lot of big winners, so you would want to find names with a high-percentage probability to double.
They also underweight boring outcomes with lower payoffs but higher probability.
According to the network operators I talked with, there is a high probability of a per-day customer signing up for monthly service after a few days of use.
When debt is treated more like a utility, with the lender managing risk so there is a high probability the loan and the agreed-upon yield will be paid, such lending is more consistent with its economic purpose.
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The probability of an even result with a lopsided coin is small.
Translation, if one were to start with a pre-trial null hypothesis probability of 50% (reflecting equipoise, an ethical prerequisite for randomizing patients), the post-trial null hypothesis probability would still be 9%, which is not sufficient to change my practice.
Deflation is a concern, although he rates the odds as low with only a 20%-25% probability.
But mothers with severe morning sickness have a 55% probability of giving birth to a daughter.
In all probability, Apple could come out with a cheaper version of iPhone along with the iPhone 5.
Muir said earlier that Cendoya and Jack's "probability for survival is good" with mild weather both day and night.
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