This shift, coupled with seasonal variation, might make for a confusing winter for users of weather.com, with more surprise raindrops or snowfalls than usual.

WSJ: Some Percentages Are Just Fair-Weather Friends

Then my father went on a winter holiday to Cuba (my mother remarked on this with some surprise and maybe approval) and came back with a lingering sort of flu that caused the visits to lapse.

NEWYORKER: Gravel

There, however, the clarity pretty much ends, and not just because Mr Brown will surely spring a populist surprise or two (remember the extra cash for hospitals and schools in July, or the pensioners' winter warmer in November?).

ECONOMIST: The budget