Typically, in a variation of the Allais experiment, subjects are asked to consider two different lotteries one with a big probability of winning a small prize and another with a smaller probability of winning a big one.

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And yet, the big surprise is that the probability of winning in either game is the same: fifty-fifty.

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One theory of decision making says you ought to maximize your expected returns, where an expected return is the outcome multiplied by the probability of winning it.

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Then we realized that if a team is winning 20-0 in the second quarter a win probability model is going to say they have a 99.9% likelihood of winning and everyone is going to stop watching.

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In fact, when the pool is that big, the best chance of winning is to throw the rules of probability out the window and just hope your crazy picks pan out.

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With 10 horses running in each race, it would seem that the odds of any one district running winning would be 1:10, or a 10% probability for the Wave to win.

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The point is, your chance of winning the car was one in three to begin with and after Monty reveals a goat, the probability that your box has the car is still just one in three.

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