This change to the win probability model made our Champions League projections a little more accurate.

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Ezekowitz also publishes a "survival analysis" method that put Harvard's win probability Thursday at 21.4%.

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Shockingly, there are fifty four linebackers above Aldon Smith in win probability added.

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Currently, Pujols ranks first in Intentional Base on Balls (236), Base-Out Runs Added (624.29), Win Probability Added (58.7), Situation Wins Added (62.0) and Base-Out Wins Added (58.7).

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Then we realized that if a team is winning 20-0 in the second quarter a win probability model is going to say they have a 99.9% likelihood of winning and everyone is going to stop watching.

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The creator of this question added the clear cut nominees at this position: Peyton, Brady, and Rodgers, but left out one important one: Matt Ryan, the leader in win probability added of any player this season.

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The implied probability of a win for Brazil here is about 26%.

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With 10 horses running in each race, it would seem that the odds of any one district running winning would be 1:10, or a 10% probability for the Wave to win.

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The pricing of the probability of an outright World Cup win is more conservative than on exchanges where there are other possible prizes and dividends.

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