Some weather models can predict the MJO three weeks ahead, he said, but others struggle to predict it a week ahead.
Samaras' colleagues said he took numerous safety precautions, spending hours looking at weather models and developing safe escape routes and rendezvous points.
We'll then compare existing Mars weather models to our data.
At the time, new numerical weather models helped forecasters predict extreme weather events two to four days out, said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Bob Case, a retired NOAA meteorologist and the Boston-based forecaster who coined the phrase "the perfect storm, " said the weather models did a "fantastic job" in helping him and other forecasters predict the storm.
"All of the computer weather models agree that most of the U.S. will be warmer than usual, but at least we can see the end coming for La Nina, " said Ants Leetmaa, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
Studies have compared all the different types of observations (including surface weather stations, balloons and aeroplanes, etc) ingested in weather models and found that Metop data makes the largest contribution to the accuracy of 24-hour lookahead, at around 25%.
Although tornado forecasting has remarkably improved over the last two decades with advanced forecasting techniques, weather satellites, numerical forecast models and Doppler weather radar, there is much about tornado forecasting that still remains a mystery.
In such circumstances, the Grid would be ideal for analysing local weather, soil models, water supplies and local demographics.
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He said it would provide cleaner and more accurate data for the computer models used to forecast the weather.
Computer models will factor in currents, weather and wind to create search patterns to focus searchers' efforts, he said.
One option is for weather centres to run 'ensembles' of models with different variables - groups of computer simulations to see if any come up with similar forecasts.
The Weather Underground site has a bunch of good tropical storm models and radar feeds.
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D.s -- including physicists and astrophysicists from Princeton and Stanford -- to come up with sophisticated risk models linking crop yields to energy prices and weather.
Until recently, for a chance of rain of 30%, the Weather Channel's weather.com had shown icons of rain, which for users who don't look at percentages will look like a prediction of wet weather even though the firm's computer models predict that seven out of 10 times on similar days, there will be no rain.
We already rely on statistical models to do everything from flying our airplanes to predicting the weather.
For insurance companies, using catastrophe models that can better anticipate probable effects of climate change on extreme weather events are key.
FORBES: Wild Weather A New Normal And Insurance Companies Must Act
But the scientists analyzed computer models and concluded that as the planet warms over the next century, weather that fueled the 2011 mega-bloom may become "the new normal, " Michalak said.
But then others objected that the Met Office is the official provider of World Meteorological Organisation statistics and it would be ludicrous to reject their highly sophisticated statistics smoothed by computer models just because the Met Office forecasters were amongst the contestants in the Weather Test.
The new early-warning system brings this approach right up to date, by integrating many different climate-forecasting computer models that couple together information about how the atmosphere and the oceans combine to create the weather.
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