But my best guess is that someone on that risk free arbitrage desk moved from risk free pure arbitrage into very definitely not risk free time arbitrage, or speculation as we should call it, then the market moved against his bet.

FORBES: The UBS Rogue Trader: Yes, I Was Right

They have just finished several years of research on primary materials - what we'll call stuff - and put it in a book, Sustainable Materials With Both Eyes Open, free to download and fascinating for umpteen reasons.

BBC: Go Figure: Why does every person need 200kg of steel a year?